Wonderful World of Tennis / Matthew Walton / 05 September 2008 / Leave a comment

With the US Open in its latter stages, "Magical" Matthew Walton looks at the lesser tournaments coming up and tells us how tournaments missing the biggest names are good news for us punters.

I don't know about you but, personally, I'm not sorry to see the US Open done and dusted for another year.

It's not that I don't enjoy the cut and thrust of the world's top players competing in one of the more charismatic settings on the tour ... it's that with the passing of the final Grand Slam of the year we return to normality. Well, something approaching normality.

The problem for us backers is the presence of Nadal, Djokovic and Federer in a tournament (and in the case of Flushing Meadows all three) severely limits our punting potential. Straight away we're looking at the vast majority of the market taken up by players who might well represent value but only offer a return of [2.5] maybe [4.0] or something approaching [6.0] if we're lucky if the outsider of the trio obliges.

Between them the 'Holy Trinity' have carved up 26 of the last 34 Masters Series titles (76%) and 14 of the last 15 Grand Slams (93%!) ... so not much room for manoeuvre when they're in the field.

Hence, with the US Open drifting off into the past we enter a much more exciting, volatile and potentially rewarding part of the tennis calendar. Ladies and Gentlemen, welcome to the Silly Season!

The point is, for most of the top players, their work is now pretty much done. The top eight are all-but qualified for the end of season beano which is the Masters Cup (staged in Shanghai but soon to be located in London), there are a handful of hangers-on who might make one last dash for the China finale but thereafter we're left with a number of players scrabbling for points, prize-money and prestige in some less than thrilling events.

And, just to interject, even the two remaining Masters Series events (Madrid and Paris) have dubious form - a subject we'll cover nearer the time.

What we now find in this two month spell is a strange mix of tournaments, cast far and wide, from Beijing to Basel, Stockholm to St. Petersburg.

At least at the start of the year players could kid themselves they're preparing for the next big event but at this time of year there's no such carrot to galvanise their efforts. So what do we find? In short, an absence of the top players, the presence of numerous underdogs and unfashionable journeymen and an overall abandonment of the formbook. All in all, a time of great punting potential!

For example, our next destination is Romania. In the last five years we've seen victories in Bucharest for Gilles Simon in 2007 (who beat another unfashionable type, Victor Hanescu, in the final), Jurgen Melzer in 2006 (the Austrian's one and only tour title), Florent Serra in 2005 (the Frenchman's maiden tour win) and David Sanchez in 2003 (his second and last ATP title). In fact, the last No.1 seed to win here was the Spaniard, Francisco Clavet in 1998!

Yes, we like the predictability of the formbook where the likes of Nadal, Federer and Djokovic (plus Andy Murray) all make the SF's of a Grand Slam - it gives our form study credibility and purpose - but we must also have enough deviation from the norm in order to stop markets becoming desperately short of value as the favourites constantly contest the big matches.

Moving on from Romania, and after a break for the Davis Cup SF's, we have events in Beijing and Bangkok (which often produce more 'formbook friendly' results with bigger prizemoney on offer) but the likes of Metz, Vienna and, to some degree, Stockholm do give the underdogs more than a fighting chance.

Hence, as backers, we should be licking our lips at the prospect of the next couple of months. We'll get shocks, surprises and the real chance of backing some decent priced winners as the world's top players generally take their collective feet off the gas as the season steadily winds down.

Therefore, when studying the markets on these upcoming events we would suggest :-

1. Take all seedings with a pinch of salt. We're dubious as to their use at the best of times but now, more than ever, their use is purely decorative.

2. Be mindful of players who habitually return to the same events. At this time of the year, like very early in the season, this provides useful guidance.

3. With tournaments especially in the Far East and Russia home bias can often be stronger than in other more 'all-inclusive' venues.

4. Look for players who are 'going through the motions' as opposed to playing with a clear goal in mind. Some guys will be a lot more motivated than others.

5. With a return to small runner fields of 32 (occasionally 28) watch out for big each-way prices about players who only need to win three matches before you're in the money.

If you take these sort of considerations on board then you have the opportunity to cash in whilst the cat's away, so to speak.

Yes, the competition of the top guys is a sight to behold but like the Williams sisters when they were in their pomp (or Tiger Woods in golf, Phil Taylor in the darts, Michael Schumacher in F1) the presence of such dominant forces isn't always that good for us, the punters. It squeezes the market too tightly around the inevitably short-priced favourites.

So, whilst we enjoy the Slams and don't begrudge the world's best their place in the limelight ... it's about time the rest of the tour were given a chance to play (and for us to make a few quid on Betfair!).