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Game-by-game betting on Betfair

Betfair's tennis man Mandeep introduces us to the fast-paced world of game-by-game betting on Betfair

Game-by-game betting

This week we will be taking a closer look at game betting as offered by Betfair. These increasingly popular markets are somewhat unique, and need to be examined with care.

Basic Concepts

Game-by-game betting can be a tricky market to master. Applying the concept of value in such a concise time period is not easy to do. The style of betting on these markets is also different to regular markets such as Match Odds.

The key to success in game betting is assessing what represents value at that moment in time. Knowing your players inside out is very important, as prices should differ from player to player. For example the chances of Andy Roddick holding serve is much more likely than Filippo Volandri. This is simply due to the various qualities of their serve.

Also, Andy Roddick is much more likely to hold serve on an indoor hard court than a clay court. Obviously on a clay court the ball comes off the surface much slower with a high bounce, meaning it is easier to return. Therefore the player returning serve is much likelier to get into the point.

Other basic information to note is that female tennis players are less likely to hold serve than men. Therefore prices should reflect this. Again knowing your players is crucial. Elena Dementieva has a shocking serve.

In the example of Dementieva, windy conditions can adversely affect their chances of holding serve.

Also the state of the balls can be a factor. Serving with newer balls mean they travel through the air quicker, thereby making them more difficult to return.

Assessing what is value improves with experience and increased player knowledge.

A golden rule to follow however is only bet between gaps in play. The timing of pictures is vital, so I would strongly advise to place a bet at what you believe is value. If it is not matched immediately, cancel it!

Surfaces

I have touched on surfaces in the previous section, but it is worth highlighting in greater detail. Clay courts have been covered, but what are the relative advantages/disadvantages of the other surfaces?

Indoor: Still indoor conditions mean the toss is unaffected by wind. Servers can therefore be more precise in their delivery, making them harder to break.

Grass: This is the next easiest surface to hold serve on. Many matches at Wimbledon (particularly Mens matches) will have numerous tie breaks or just a single break in a set. So why is it significantly more difficult to hold serve on grass? For starters the ball zips off the surface at a much faster rate than any other. The players also do not play on grass courts, so this can be a difficult adjustment to make. Players are not so sure of their footing on a slippery surface, so rain affects the balance of the returner.

Hard: This can vary depending on the weather conditions at the time. Although the court can sometimes play like an indoor court, wind is a crucial factor. The surface still favours the server, unlike a clay court.

Prices

Pricing up a market or taking a price is subjective to your opinion of value. I would assess the relative player's chances of holding serve and make a judgement call. For example, at the Madrid Master this year, Robby Ginepri was priced anywhere between 1.4 and 1.58 to hold serve against Roger Federer. Federer only broke serve once in the match, so that price was value.

If you are new to these markets, play with small amounts until you feel comfortable.

A good player with a good serve will be between 1.12 (indoors) and 1.25 (clay). At deuce, I expect that player to be 1.33.

Have a look at the markets, watch them even if you are not placing a bet, and note prices in different situations. With that experience, you will be in a much better position to make a better bet!

For more stats on players on the men's tour go to:

http://www.atptennis.com/1/en/home/