End of season tournaments require a different approach when it comes to betting

Wonderful World of Tennis / Scott Ferguson / 21 September 2007 / Leave a Comment

Scott's Spot- Scott considers which players can make an impact at this stage of the season and which have other things on their mind

With the Grand Slams over for another year, the focus for most players now changes. Accordingly, the way punters assess each match should probably change as well.

At this end of year, only a handful of players are still in the running to qualify for the Tennis Masters Cup in Shanghai. I still have my doubts whether too many players are really fussed about getting into the event to be honest. At the end of a long campaign where these guys have made plenty of money already, what are they really playing for? A chance to take six weeks off and then be ready to launch an assault on the Australian Open would be more likely for several of them.

That covers the guys in the top 20. How about the guys behind them? The next bracket 20-50 will be keen to lock in a seeding at the Aussie Open. Travelling all that way then copping Federer in the first round isn't fun, so getting into the top 32 is an attractive lure.

Players at the far end of the top 100 and beyond will also be looking at Melbourne, but with the aim of getting a berth in the main draw and not having to face qualifying. Before the end of the season, there are four weeks of indoor tournaments worth up to US$250k, two Masters Series event and the jolly finale in Shanghai.

Indoor events can bring about a very different set of emotions. The weather is turning cold, there are usually less courts, meaning matches can be played later so a player can be sitting around on a cold, wet day waiting for a match in a supposedly summer sport. Sure, these guys are professionals, but at the end of a long, arduous year, you can forgive them a little if their mind starts to wander and the heart isn't quite into it.

Players react differently to the serene surroundings - no wind, different acoustics of striking the ball and crowd noise, and the lighting. Like any other surface, some players love it such as Robin Soderling, and others hate it.

Another factor to watch for is players without much match practice. Andy Murray is one player who missed the main part of the season and should be quite fresh for the end of season events. Who else has played far less matches than usual and has the appetite for more? Radek Stepanek and Mario Ancic are prime targets, both have had injury or illness concerns this year and are well suited to the faster indoor surfaces.

Adjust your strategy accordingly - after a long, hard year, a lot of players will be going through the motions. Upsets at this time of year aren't as surprising so don't be so keen to unlock the bank on that 1.3 shot you fancy each time!