Tennis Betfacts / Matthew Walton / 24 November 2008 / 1 Comments

No sooner has the action finished on the main ATP Tour for another year than thoughts turn to next season ... 2009 is not that far away, says Matthew Walton.

For the vast majority of the tour, 2009 promises to be little different from 2008, i.e. dominated by not so much the 'Big Two' of Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer but now by the 'Big Four' with both Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray being added to the mix.

And it's fair to say, the statistics give little cause for encouragement to the likes of Davydenko, Tsonga, Del Potro, Nalbandian & Roddick et al.

Looking back through 2008, of the 15 events which the Fab Four all contested together, they won no fewer than 12 times (80%) making them combined odds of around [1.25] for the win when they all attended a particular tournament.

That list included all four of the Grand Slams (Nadal 2, Federer & Djokovic 1), the Olympic Games (Nadal) and 7 of the 9 Masters Series events (Nadal 3, Djokovic & Murray 2).

The only other players to get in on the act were Andy Roddick in Dubai (where Murray took out Federer in R1), Nikolay Davydenko in Miami (when defeating Nadal in the final) and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at the season finale in Paris (which saw Nadal retire and Federer withdraw through injury).

Worse still is that the rise of Andy Murray to No.4 in the world is more likely to place these four players separately in each of the four quarters of the draw (especially at the Slams) causing any other player to face the potentially colossal task of having to beat any three of these four guys back-to-back in the QF's, SF's and the final!

Thankfully for the rank and file of the tour, there are plenty of other events in the calendar at which they can hope to benefit. The 67 tournament schedule for 2009 should at least provide a few opportunities for them to acquire some prize-money and ranking points!

And when we study the play of the world's top four in greater detail we can clearly see that their domination of the game isn't immune to the threat of others ... there is hope for the 'also rans' of 2008 to make a bigger impact in the future.

For starters, many players should take note from the example of Andy Murray - the latest graduate from the tour's own 'youth development programme'.

Currently all his CV lacks is a Grand Slam title, which many noted commentators have judged to be not too far away.

In this respect Murray is merely one step behind Novak Djokovic. The Serb followed the standard progression of regular tour titles to Masters Series titles to a Grand Slam final and then, in 2008, to a first Slam title in Melbourne. After that final in Flushing Meadows, Murray himself is now just one step off the top rung of the ladder.

Djokovic ended 2008 with victory in the Masters Series Cup in Shanghai to cement his place amongst the world's elite and Murray, likewise, has drawn up a seat at the top table by way of a stellar second half of the year.

However, what both these players illustrate to the likes of Del Potro, Tsonga and Gasquet (and even the older guys like Roddick, Nalbandian and Davydenko) is that talent, attitude and commitment can, and will, elevate you into the higher echelons of the game.

Also, don't forget, Djokovic didn't win an event for nigh on six months this year between Rome in May and Shanghai earlier this month and Murray, similarly, went almost as long without a win between Marseille and Cincinnati. They're not unbeatable!

Other players should take this as a sign that trophies are still very much up for grabs this coming season and that if Djokovic and Murray can do it, so can they.

As for the top two? There are certainly grounds for the rest of the tour to retain some optimism for the year ahead. Nadal, for all his prowess on clay, still struggles to dominate on harder, faster surfaces.

The Spaniard has yet to make a Grand Slam final in either Melbourne or New York and his tally of 31 singles titles has only 7 wins (22%) on hard courts. He's similarly uncomfortable indoors (just one title under cover thus far). Clay is one thing but there are many more titles and much more prize-money to be won by players away from the red stuff.

And when it comes to Federer, surely his focus for 2009 is clear ... win Grand Slams. The Swiss, almost unthinkably, didn't win a Masters Series event in the whole of 2008. His focus now is surely to overhaul Pete Sampras' record of 14 major titles and he's just one win away from drawing level. There's no doubting where his attentions will be focused in the new year and that again leaves plenty of opportunity for the rest to take advantage of his 'absence'.

What becomes evident is that although these four players combined to enjoy plenty of success in the Blue Riband events in 2008, away from these tournaments (and even at some of them) other players are more than capable of picking up significant rewards.

Such is the demanding nature of the ATP Tour schedule that these guys can't be everywhere, all the time, and when added to other considerations - like form, fitness and fatigue - good betting opportunities will follow.

Whilst the markets become ever-tightly centred around Nadal, Federer, Djokovic and Murray they simultaneously create value about other players. We will see new guys coming through to compete for the big titles, we will find some of the older guys enjoying a resurgence, we won't always see one of the Big Four lift the trophy.

Many backers can see no further than these four but remember, for all their fantastic ability they certainly aren't invincible. Pick the right moment and there are real value bets to be found on Betfair.