Tennis Betfacts / Matthew Walton / 25 July 2008 / Leave a Comment

Matthew Walton provides some useful tips on what to consider as an in-running player.

Not all betting strategies are based upon cast-iron scientific fact. They are borne out of instinct, intuition or an opinion formed by a general view as opposed to a specific statistical standpoint.

As such, they bear a rather loose relation to the facts and upon closer research they might not prove to be quite as reliable as some other betting philosophies. Still, we are aware of them none the less - don't back odds-on in novice chases or on football teams playing away from home, always back the side who bats second in a Lord's final ... beware the injured golfer! This sort of thing.

And, following this thought, here's a real-life scenario which occurred in the recent play in the Rogers Cup in Toronto which very nicely illustrates, in tennis terms, this kind of 'unwritten betting law'.

Watching an evening match between Jonas Bjorkman and Arnaud Clement I started to take interest at the back-end of the second set. To that point, Bjorkman had taken the first set 6-3 but the Frenchman hit back to break serve and was about to serve out the set as he led 5-3 with a break.

Clement duly held serve, won the set and levelled the match at one set all, 3-6 6-3.

Now, here's the deal. Let's weigh up where your money would be at this point if you were watching the action on Betfair, poised to play.

1. Clement leads their head-to-heads 4:1. Bjorkman won their first meeting in 1998 but the Frenchman has won all four since, including at Wimbledon just two weeks earlier.

2. Clement is the better player in terms of ranking and has had a slightly better season to date.

3. Having lost the first set, Clement battled back to level the match. Surely, one would think, holding the momentum as the players enter the deciding set.

4. The prices on Betfair are [3.00] Bjorkman, [1.38] Clement. Given the Frenchman's 4:1 lead over the Swede, and the state of the match, maybe a fair enough price.

5. Bjorkman is first to serve in the third and final set.

The fifth and final point is thrown in as this is the key to our discussion. Something which you, as a tennis backer, may have often thought yourself as your bet is drawn into a deciding set ... I wish my man was serving first.

Why? Well, it's the classic psychological test of character. You serve first and hold, your opponent then has to do likewise just to draw level. You've got your game won, now you can take chances on his serve, have a few free swings, try and hit some big winners. He's playing catch-up whilst you've got nothing to lose.

Personally, I always like my man to be serving first and I'm sure you are too - it's just one more little advantage that can help your bet cross the finishing line first.

What happens in this match? The table below takes you through that deciding third set.

It's the typical example of a player serving first, pressurising his opponent, getting a lead, gaining confidence and then never being pegged back. Bjorkman wins at a canter as Clement falls apart and lands the win at [3.00] for anybody who took the cue at the start of the set that the Swede was serving first.

As simple as that? Not quite. That very same night there was another example of this point in the match between Thomas Johansson and Thomaz Bellucci. The underdog Brazilian served first in the decider but Johansson still won. And, cast your minds back to Wimbledon, it was Federer who served first in that epic fifth set.

However, to counter this point. Even if we move away from this 'serve first, win the match' third set mantra we can still highlight a valuable trading hint.

As we said before, Player A serves first in the decider and holds serve. Player B then has to play catch-up all through the set.

Every time Player A holds serve to lead 1-0, 2-1, 3-2 etc his price will naturally shorten. Then, whenever Player B holds his serve to level at 1-1, 2-2 or 3-3 we'll see the prices converge once again. Player A will lengthen and Player B will shorten.

That's just human nature and common sense being applied.

What this phenomenon will create is an ebb and flow of exchange prices as the set unfolds. If you think Player A (serving first) will win the match, best to back him before he serves - and holds - as his price will only diminish. Should you prefer Player B's chances then wait for him to drop the odd game behind and then back him as he tries to level the match (more so should he go 0:15 on serve).

Yes, breaks of serve can undermine this policy but they'll do that whatever your strategy.

Overall, it's a very interesting topic of debate. Not a statistic that's easy to uncover but one which as an in-running player you should always consider. The case studies we've highlighted are a microscopic view of the countless matches which go the distance every week - matches which you play on.

And whilst not advocating a blanket support of everybody who serves first in deciding sets, as backers we should at least take this fact into account when we set to work on Betfair. It's one of those unwritten laws which we should all recognise.

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