Players Under the Microscope / Editor / 04 October 2007 /

Mandeep tells us why Ivan Ljubicic's record is so good indoors

As the ATP tour moves back to Europe, we will be taking a closer look at one man who loves playing on the upcoming Indoor surfaces.

The former world number 3 is back in business. Following a disappointing season, it is now time for the huge serving Croat to shine. He can devastate indoors without the wind to affect his game. In such wind affected conditions, Ljubicic can struggle with his footwork. His height and size make it difficult for him to set up correctly for the shot. Indoors, he is more able to plant his feet and get a solid foundation in order to blast big groundstrokes. His favourite of these is the flat one handed backhand down the line, which is an extremely useful stroke indoors.

The table below shows some interesting statistics which are worth looking at a little closer. In order to gain a more accurate picture as to Ljubicic's more favoured surfaces, let us take a look at his career record on Indoor courts and compare them to other surfaces. As you can see, his win/loss percentage on Indoor Hard courts is higher than on any other surface (won 65, lost 27). Next most favoured is carpet, his win/loss record is only 4% less at 67%. This stat combined with the fact that his favourite continent is unsurprisingly Europe means there could be some value in his prices.

Detailed Match Record			Past 12 Months						All Matches (from Jan 01 2000)
	By Surface	W-L		W%				W-L		W%
	Hard Court	19-9		0.68				130-79		0.62
	Indoor Hard	10-4		0.71				65-27		0.71
	Carpet	5-3		0.63				54-27		0.67
	Clay	5-6		0.45				75-56		0.57
	Grass	8-2		0.80				20-17		0.54
	By Region	W-L		W%				W-L		W%
	North America	10-5		0.67				65-43		0.60
	Europe	27-13		0.68				212-124		0.63
	South America	0-0		N/A				1-1		0.50
	Asia	5-6		0.45				42-32		0.57
	Rest of World	5-0		1.00				24-6		0.80

 

Tie Break Record	Past 12 Months		All Matches (from Jan 01 2000)
Totals	W-L	W%	W-L	W%
Overall Record	30-16	0.65	167-153	0.52
Totals	W-L	W%	W-L	W%
Hard Court	10-5	0.67	71-64	0.53
Indoor Hard	4-2	0.67	27-19	0.59
Carpet	5-4	0.56	30-27	0.53
Clay	7-3	0.70	29-32	0.48
Grass	4-2	0.67	10-11	0.48

Inevitably when pricing up a Winner market on Betfair, users look at recent form. Ljubicic has not performed at all well by his standards in the last few months, so there will undoubtedly be some value in his prices. Betfair should be offering game betting during the upcoming Masters Series events in Madrid and Paris. He will be especially tough to break indoors. Last year, he served more aces than any other player on tour. With that in mind, looking at his tie break record is an exercise worth doing. The table above shows he performs better in tie breaks on both indoor surfaces than he does on all other court types. However I would expect him to have a higher percentage than the ones highlighted, so it may be prudent to lay off your bet at the beginning of a tie break. The market may assume with his huge serve Ljubicic is a big favourite to win most tie breaks against most players. But this does not appear to be the case.

Backing Ljubicic is something I am always reluctant to recommend. His on court demeanour suggests he is disinterested, and can even appear lazy. I do not believe he is capable of winning one of the larger events, but could reach a semi final depending on the draw. The most sensible course of action is to back him match to match (avoid any match against the top 3), and lay off should there be a tie break. Happy punting!

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