The Fed Express doesn't deliver in Melbourne - what now?

Players Under the Microscope / Barry Millns / 29 January 2008 / Leave a Comment

Tennis commentator Barry Millns looks at Federer's rebuilding process after Melbourne and what we can expect from him for the rest of the year

Having watched Roger Federer reach the previous 10 grand slam finals and win eight of them, his failure to reach another last weekend at the Australian Open drew inevitable reports of the world No.1's demise. But is this really true or is it more a case of Novak Djokovic continuing to close the gap behind him at the top of the game, as we saw the Serb do throughout 2007?

This time last year Federer was basking in the glory of his 10th grand slam success, achieved without dropping a set at the Australian Open. Although he suffered some surprising defeats in subsequent Masters Series events between the grand slams, he still went onto reach another final of the French Open before winning Wimbledon and the US Open again, just as he had in 2006.

For Djokovic, having started 2007 ranked outside the Top 15, the season proved to be a progression of stepping stones - reaching his first Masters Series final in Indian Wells, winning the next one in Maimi, breaking into the Top 10 before he turned 20 in May, reaching his first grand slam semi-final at the French Open, matching that at Wimbledon, beating the world's top 3 (including Federer for the first time) in Montreal and reaching his first grand slam final at the US Open!

Federer won that New York encounter 7-6, 7-6, 6-4 whereas in their latest meeting at Melbourne Park, Djokovic prevailed 7-5, 6-3, 7-6. Close matches both but a look at the stats from each one show some key differences.

In the former Federer won 62% of points on his second serve compared to only 43% in the latter and converted 60% of his break point opportunities in New York compared to only 22% in Melbourne; for Djokovic on the other hand, a first serve percentage of 68% in Melbourne was a great improvement on his 55% in New York and his break point conversion rate rose from 22% to 36% - in other words the man who took his chances better on the day won.

Had Federer not played one of the worst games of his career when serving for the first set in Melbourne at 5-4 it might well have been a different story. But all of a sudden his forehand started to misfire and that was all the invitation Djokovic needed to come right back and beat him.

"There's no doubt I've played better in my life," Federer said afterwards. "I've not been really serving like the way I wanted to, maybe the last few matches. Look, it happens. But he covered the court well. He didn't give me much."

After easy wins in his first two matches, the marathon against Janko Tipsarevic had certainly tested Federer, who then beat Tomas Berdych and James Blake in straight sets. But the Swiss later added that he had not felt completely comfortable throughout the fortnight.

"No, I don't, I didn't think I was moving that great," he said. "I definitely wasn't as good on the defensive like I usually am. I couldn't come up with the passing shot when I needed to. Yeah, that definitely hurt me, especially today."

Perhaps it was a lingering effect of the stomach virus that undermined his preparation the week before or perhaps he needs fresh input from a new coach, having done things his own way since last May? Then again give huge credit to Djokovic for handling the pressure of such a match as well as he did to beat Federer for the first time in a grand slam.

As things now stand Djokovic, who has the game for all surfaces, could conceivably win more majors in 2008 than the world No.1, and being Olympic year, who is say the proud Serb won't also put in a golden performance in Beijing? Yet Djokovic is well aware of how hard Federer can hit back and fully expects him to do so.

Having missed out in Melbourne, Federer is trading in the market at [7.8] to win the remaining three grand slams this year, [2.78] to win two of them, [2.42] to win one and [4.4] to pick up none at all. Still two behind Sampras's record of 14, it would be now be amazing if he breaks it in 2008 and with Djokovic leading the challenge to his supremacy, winning two of the next three is likely to be harder for Federer than ever before.