Players Under the Microscope / Simon Mundie / 04 March 2009 / 1 Comments

Novak Djokovic was overshadowed in the second half of 2008 but encouraging victories in Shanghai and Dubai suggest that he might be ready to challenge for the top prizes again. Simon Mundie wonders if 'the Serbinator' has what it takes to overcome his 'Big Four' rivals.

Last weekend, world number three Novak Djokovic won his first title of the 2009 season at the ATP World Tour 500 tournament in Dubai with victory over the Spanish fourth seed David Ferrer.

The World Tour 500 is historically a strong tournament, so it could be argued that Djokovic's victory bodes well for 2009. However, the notion that Djokovic is actually the weakest of the 'Big Four' has been circulating for a while now. So the question is, is Djokovic on the way up or the way down?

It was just over a year ago that Djokovic, ([1.3] to win a Grand Slam this year, [1.1] to win none] broke the Federer-Nadal duopoly in Grand Slam events by winning the 2008 Australian Open. He added another win in the Masters Series event in Indian Wells, and looked like he would be challenging for top spot by the year's end (he is [12.5] to finish 2009 as no.1). He picked up a second Masters Crown on the clay of Rome, before losing to Rafael Nadal in three consecutive events in Hamburg, Paris and on grass in the final at Queen's club just before Wimbledon. By this point, it seemed the Serb was firmly entrenched in an elite group of three with Nadal and Federer.

Much of the talk in the days before Wimbledon was about the 'The Big Three', and the semi-final showdown between Djokovic and Federer that was deemed to be a certainty. Many people thought that match could spell disaster for the five-time defending Champion. However, things didn't go to plan and Djokovic lost tamely in the second round to Marat Safin, a player whose disdain for the intricacies of grass court tennis is well known. Djokovic appeared to lack the stomach for a fight, and seemed resigned to his fate long before a final double-fault finished him off.

Thereafter, his aura has lost some of its lustre, and he has had to watch as Andy Murray has staked his claim to be amongst the very best on tour. Djokovic lost to the Scot in consecutive tournaments, having dominated Murray in their previous encounters up until that point. Indeed, Djokovic has been overshadowed by Murray, Nadal and Federer since that disastrous loss to Safin at Wimbledon, registering only one win against his fellow members of the now so-called 'Big Four' in five matches before the end of last year.

Worryingly for the Serb, he was also made to look second best on a couple of occasions by one of the newest members of the top 10, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

Djokovic did finish the year with something of a flourish, taking the Masters Cup to move within touching distance of the number two ranking, but he didn't face Federer, Nadal or Murray during the tournament, which took some of the sheen off the win. His recent win in Dubai is tarnished by similar accusations; can the Serb win when Nadal, Federer or Murray are all fit and playing?

Even when winning in Dubai, Djokovic's form in 2009 has hardly been spectacular. He was soundly beaten by Ernests Gulbis in Brisbane, and even lost to Jarko Nieminen in Sydney when he had the opportunity to overtake Federer in the rankings.

It was at the Australian Open that his reputation took the biggest beating though, as he defaulted from his quarter-final match against a resurgent Andy Roddick citing exhaustion, a decision that did not sit well with many of his fellow pros. Roger Federer in particular was highly critical, saying: "He's not a guy who's never given up before; it's disappointing. Andy totally deserved to win that match." Compare Djokovic's decision to quit, the fourth time Djokovic has done that in Grand Slam events alone, with the likes of Pete Sampras, who endured bouts of on court vomiting during his career without retiring, and you start to doubt Djokovic's credentials to be a genuine Champion and possible World Number One.

Another dubious decision the Serb recently took was to change his racket at the end of 2008 from a Wilson frame to Head. Making such a change is a big risk for top players, after all, the most important relationship they are likely to have during their career is with their racket. It was in all likelihood a financial decision, and one you can't imagine the likes of Federer or Nadal making. The effects of the switch have been apparent; he has struggled with his forehand and complained that sometimes his new frame has been too powerful to ensure complete control off the ground. While Djokovic is likely to grow more comfortable with his new racket, it could prove impossible for him to return to his previous level.

Djokovic is still young, and as he matures he may make better decisions than he has done over the last few months. However, his biggest problem may lie not with himself, but with his opponents; the Serb does not have the power of Nadal, the finesse of Federer or the variety of Andy Murray, and his game doesn't have anything in it that stands out when compared to the likes of Del Potro or Tsonga. There is no doubt Djokovic is a special player and should be a fixture in the top 10 for some time [he is [1.04] to finish 2009 in the top 8], but it is also quite possible that his opportunity to be the best player in the world has already come and gone.