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Tennis Betting: New coach, same old Roddick?

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If tennis was about serving alone then Andy Roddick would be competing for every major honour. Sean Calvert puts the former world number one under the microscope and asks if a new coach can help him raise his all-round gain to a level which would see him threatening the Big Four.

Andy Roddick will start the 2009 season as the world number eight - his lowest ranking since 2002.

He has a new coach in the renowned Larry Stefanki, of whom Roddick is undoubtedly expecting great things, but will the addition of Stefanki lead to a renewed challenge to the current 'big four'?

Roddick is clearly determined to squeeze the absolute maximum from his talent, as his willingness to try new things with different coaches, such as Jimmy Connors and now Stefanki proves, but what can Stefanki do that Connors et al couldn't?

Well, one look at the stats for 2008 will show Stefanki that Roddick's strength still lies with his serve. He has outstanding numbers for the season, being ranked first in percentage of service games won (91%); second in aces (889) and in first service points won (80%).

In fact, Roddick is ranked fourth or higher in each of the six service categories, but we all know that the Nebraskan has a great serve, there's nothing new there. It's the return numbers that should have Stefanki shaking in his sneakers.

Roddick is ranked 35th in points won on returning first serve - lower than Florent Serra and Marc Gicquel. He is in 42nd place for converting break points - behind Jose Acasuso and Albert Montanes; and 33rd in return games won after taking just 20 percent of his opponent's service games all season.

He doesn't trouble the top 30 in any of the service return categories and the question for Stefanki therefore is simple - can he teach Roddick something that Connors, one of the best service returners of all time, failed to?

The answer might lie in having a look at Stefanki's recent former pupils and the omens don't appear to be that great for the new team.

Having teamed up with Fernando Gonzalez in 2006, most commentators will point to the Chilean's Australian Open performances of the following year as proof that the coach had a positive influence on his charge's game, but I beg to differ.

Gonzalez was one of the most exciting players in the game to watch - bar none - until Stefanki took over and reeled in the aspects of his game that opponents feared most.

What remained was an over-reliance on a heavily sliced backhand which created overlong rallies and required a patience and consistency to win that Gonzalez doesn't possess.

Another telling factor in their relationship is that Gonzalez was ranked eighth in the world when Stefanki took over - the same position that Roddick occupies now - but he had slipped to 15th by the end of their time together.

Another concerning coincidence for Roddick is that prior to neutralising Gonzalez's weapons, Stefanki did the same thing to Tim Henman during their two and a bit years together. Henman's ranking at the start of that relationship? Eighth. By the end? 40.

I'm sure Stefanki would point to the fact that during his tutelage, Henman reached the semi-finals of the French Open in addition to several Wimbledon semis and a temporary ranking of four, but again that highlights a lack of understanding of the player.

Those with long memories will recall that Stefanki's policy with Henman was to take some pace off the serve and thereby gain more consistency, but I view that as a major reason that Tim failed to reach a Wimbledon final, despite having a near perfect game for the courts of the time.

Henman's serve became less of a weapon in a similar vein to the forehand of Gonzalez and eventually both players lost their way and with it their ranking.

The only saving grace I can see for Roddick is that he does have a history of immediate (but temporary) improvement when he hires a new coach, so don't be surprised to see a revitalised Roddick equal his best performance of semi finalist in Melbourne next month.

He's currently [48.0] for the Australian Open title. Can't see it myself, but the evidence suggests that it's his best chance of a slam in 2009.

Let's hope for Roddick's sake that Mr Stefanki doesn't go tinkering with that big serve and forehand.