Players Under the Microscope / Simon Mundie / 07 February 2009 / Leave a comment

Simon Mundie assesses the Australian Open champion's chances of achieving tennis immortality by becoming the first man to win all four major titles in one season since 1969.

The Grand Slam is the holy grail of tennis. The last time anyone on either tour achieved it was back in 1988, when Steffi Graf completed her sweep with victory over Gabriella Sabatini in New York. On the men's side, its' proved far more elusive, no player having achieved the feat besides the great Rod Laver, who managed it in both 1962 and 1969. Others have come close, most recently Roger Federer who won three Grand Slams in a year on three separate occasions, but no one has quite managed to cross the line and write themselves into tennis immortality.

Until recently, the feat was considered virtually impossible as the great players of previous generations were significantly more vulnerable on certain surfaces or under specific circumstances. Bjorn Borg could never win under lights at the US Open; John McEnroe, Boris Becker, Stefan Edberg and Pete Sampras were all fallible on the clay of Roland Garros; and Ivan Lendl could never adapt his game to the lawns of SW19. Andre Agassi had the game to win on all surfaces, but was never dominant enough to win all four in a season, particularly during Sampras' pomp.

When Roger Federer began his World domination in 2004, the prospect of a calendar Slam became a distinct possibility. Only one thing stood in his way; the emergence of the greatest claycourt player since Borg in Rafael Nadal. The Spaniard thwarted Federer in 2006 and 2007, but it was Federer's destiny to complete the Slam at some point. However, it hasn't gone to plan. Nadal has gone from strength to strength away from clay, whilst remaining virtually invincible on the dirt. He's won on grass, and now he's won on hardcourts too. Could this be the year that history is made and Rafa, not Federer, joins Laver as a tennis immortal?

Next stop on the Grand Slam tour is Paris, where Nadal is yet to be beaten. The extent of Nadal's dominance on clay is such that his odds are incredibly short [1.47], and the lack of clay specialists on the tour would make it a huge shock if he didn't win his fifth consecutive title there.

In the 1990s and early 2000s there were players like Sergi Bruguera, Thomas Muster or Gustavo Kuerten who would come into their own and dominate the claycourt season. These days, there are no specialists who you would expect to pose a genuine threat to Federer ([8.4] to win the French) on clay, let alone Nadal. For Nadal to not collect his second Grand Slam title at Roland Garros it would probably take injury or a superlative display from one of the other members of the 'Big Four'. Nadal's knee problems are well documented, but clay is far more forgiving than hardcourts, so injury is less of a concern. With that in mind, you have to say Nadal is a shoo-in for the French, whicj would take his total to. He's [2.2] on Betfair to pick up 2 Slams this year.

So with two in the bag, Nadal will return to SW19 as defending champion. Whether he starts as favorite will depend on Federer's form between now and the end of June, and whether the Swiss can record any wins over Nadal to free himself from the mental stranglehold the Spaniard currently holds over him. That will be a tall order, as the last three Grand Slam final losses he's suffered at Nadal's hands have clearly dug extremely deep.

Federer was in emotional turmoil after the latest reverse, crying during the Australian Open presentation ceremony, and it will be interesting to see how he bounces back. However, the fact remains Federer's game is better suited to the grass of Wimbledon, and Nadal will be more vulnerable against Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic than in previous years, along with improving players like Jo Wilfred Tsonga and Juan Martin Del Potro. Regaining his Wimbledon crown is far from nailed on, and everyone will be gunning to knock him off his perch. At this stage, I would be mightily impressed if Nadal retains his trophy, making it his third Grand Slam of 2009. You can back him at [3.1] to pick up "just" the three.

The buzz around New York would be immense if Nadal entered the US Open on the back of three consecutive Grand Slam victories and he's [9.0] to win the lot, or in other words actually "do the Grand Slam". The pressure would be huge, and a victory at Flushing Meadow would certainly be the toughest for Nadal compared to the other majors.

His improvement on hard courts has been extremely impressive, but it's still the surface on which he is most vulnerable, as the bounce from his topspin drives are more predictable and have slightly less bite, so big hitters can step in, take the ball early and put Nadal onto his back foot. By this point, you have to expect that the rising stars of the game, like Tsonga, Simon and Gulbis could throw a spanner in the Grand Slam works. Even more eager to knock Nadal off his perch will be Federer, gunning for a sixth consecutive US Open crown; Murray, last year's finalist and a player who loves the New York atmosphere; and Djokovic.

The final consideration for Nadal to make it a clean sweep at the US Open is the state of his body. Hardcourts cause Nadal's knees problems due to his attritional style of play, hence why the Spaniard recently called for fewer tournaments on the surface. Toward the end of 2008, Nadal's body had started to give out on him, and he had to miss the Masters Cup, as well as the Davis Cup final. Rumors about the genuine extent of Nadal's knee problems are often debated, and that could end up being the thing that stops 2009 being the greatest year in men's tennis for forty years.