Save your knackered Nadal bets for Australia

Players Under the Microscope / Ralph Ellis / 30 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

Rafael Nadal has played almost a game of tennis every three days this year and it's starting to take its toll on the young Spanish powerhouse, says Ralph Ellis. So backing Gael Monfils this evening and Argentina in the Davis Cup might prove sound investments.

Rafael Nadal doesn't do rest. After a year of travelling from tournament to tournament - winning most of them - he's still a glutton for punishment to get out on the practice courts and play more matches.

The blaze and intensity of his determination to overtake Roger Federer as world number one this year has never wavered. And here we are just a couple of weeks from the end of the tennis season and he's still going.

In fact Nadal not only ground out yet another singles victory in yesterday's Paris Masters when he beat Frenchman Florent Serra, he signed up for the doubles tournament too. It means, as Mike Dickson points out in this morning's Daily Mail, that the Spaniard will be playing his 92nd singles match of the year when he takes on Gael Monfils tonight, and if you include his doubles games so far then it's110 matches in all.

Add in the demands of practice, and of travelling, and there must be a point where it all begins to catch up - even for a 22-year-old at the peak of his physical prowess. That's happened already. His defeat in the semi-finals of the US Open was clearly down to fatigue after dashing back from winning an Olympic Gold medal in Shanghai. And it was also why he lost in the semi-finals of the Madrid Masters against Gilles Simon.

It means that backing Nadal comes with a health warning at the moment. He is [1.24] to beat Monfils this evening but it could well be closer than that - the handicap betting gives Monfils only plus 3.5 games and the Frenchman, who reached as high as 16 in the rankings at one time this year, is [2.04] to win with that advantage.

There will be bigger implications to come. After this week Nadal will have to fly back to Shanghai for the eight-man Masters Cup that begins a week on Sunday. And then will come another plane for another flight across the world to go to Argentina for the Davis Cup finals. Argentina are currently [1.84] favourites for that trophy, and with Spain's star player likely to be struggling with tiredness by then it looks a sound proposition.

The first time it is likely to be worth backing Nadal will be when the Australian Open comes around in January. By then he'll have had a break - albeit only a month between the Davis Cup final and the start of the new season - but that will be enough to get him refreshed and ready to go. And that will also be where the blazing will to win cuts in again.

Together with the US Open it's one of the Grand Slams he has yet to add to his collection and the drive which brought him out on top in that epic Wimbledon final against Roger Federer is sure to be there again. Federer is currently [2.98] favourite for the first Grand Slam of the year, which makes Nadal massive value at [4.7] because there's nothing to choose between them.

Five things you might not know about Gael Monfils

1. Born in Bobigny near Paris in 1986, his dad Rufin is a former professional soccer player from the island of Guadeloupe.

2. In 2004 he won three of the four Junior Grand Slam titles, missing out only in the US Open

3. His service action is very similar to Andy Roddick, but he's denied suggestions that he modelled it on the American. It still generates up to 140mph

4. He is nicknamed 'La Monf', or 'Sliderman' for his unusual sliding technique on clay court surfaces

5. He's been described as 'the fastest man on the tour' by American rising star James Blake