Monte Carlo Betting: We need to talk about Roger

Players Under the Microscope / Simon Mundie / 15 April 2009 / Leave a Comment

Without a win in 2009 and a victory over Rafael Nadal on any surface since 2007, Roger Federer is at the lowest point of his career for many a year. Simon Mundie looks at the causes of the problem and possible solutions.

Off the court, 2009 has already been a wonderful year for Roger Federer: he has married his long-term girlfriend Mirka Vavrinec, and the couple are expecting their first child later this year. On the court, things aren't so rosy for the man some consider to be the greatest of all time.

Federer hasn't won a title since scooping his 13th Grand Slam title in New York last year. He won the US Open with a resounding win over Andy Murray to rescue what had been, by his meteoric standards, a lean year up until that point. He began this year by losing the final in Doha to Murray, before displaying some superb performances on the way to the final of the Australian Open, not least his quarter-final destruction of Juan Martin Del Potro.

That night everything he tried came off, and he lit up the court as only he can. In the final, it was the same old story though, as his mental frailties were exposed by the man who has overtaken him at the summit of the men's game, Rafael Nadal. The depth of his despair was clear for all to see as he broke down in tears during the presentation ceremony, providing his detractors with the ammunition to claim that his game was in terminal decline, and his spirit broken.

Since then, he has played only two further tournaments, losing once more to Andy Murray and also to the other member of the 'Big Four': Novak Djokovic. During the latest loss to the Serb in Miami his behaviour was hugely out of character, smashing a racket on the ground having missed yet another routine forehand. It was the sort of behaviour he appeared to have eradicated from his game since his time as a petulant teenager.

It appears then, that Federer is at his lowest ebb for many years. He is without a win against Nadal anywhere since 2007, and it's clear that Murray has his number too for now. It is highly possible that he will have dropped down to number three before the end of the summer, and several players will fancy their chances of adding his prized scalp to their CV. So what can he do to regain some of his former aura, starting this week with his first 2009 outing on the clay-courts of Monte Carlo?

Federer's greatest weapon during his all conquering seasons was his forehand- possibly the greatest the game has ever seen. In full flow it was the perfect stroke: incredibly powerful, consistent and full of variety. In recent times, it has proved something of a liability, particularly when he has needed to rely on it most. It doesn't appear to have the fluency it once did, and he doesn't enjoy the same level of belief in it as was previously a given. Part of that is down to how his backhand has been exposed, first by Nadal, and now by other players who have seen how the Spaniard has managed to break that wing down during their titanic encounters. Federer feels he has to do more with his forehand when he gets the opportunity, and as a result he often over presses with it, resulting in error. To re-establish his forehand as the best in the game, he first needs to decide the best way to use his backhand.

Federer's backhand slice is an excellent shot, but he has been reluctant to use it, particularly against Nadal. That could well be a mistake as if he used his slice to manoeuvre the likes of the Spaniard short and wide, as well as deep, he would free himself from the shackles of feeling the need to hit screaming winners with his forehand at every opportunity.
Another area of his game that has slipped is his serve, which is markedly less powerful and accurate. You have to assume that it is a technical issue, one that probably needs the attention of a coach- someone who can take an objective look at the stroke and make minor adjustments where needed. Federer though, like many great champions before him, is a stubborn man who will always think he knows best. He is still without a coach, as he has been for much of the last few years, and shows no sign of looking to hire one. Until he dispels with that obstinate approach, he may well be fighting a losing battle to reach his previous heights.

If he were to hire someone full-time who could help fine tune his strokes and give him some tactical suggestions, he wouldn't have to simply rely on playing the brand of perfect tennis of which he is eminently capable, but which is becoming increasingly rare. It would also allow someone else to carry the burden of his losses, which could take some of the pressure off his shoulders and allow him to play in the carefree manner that was previously the hallmark of his game. The question is, if Federer ever decides a coach is the way forward, who would be the best man for the job? You feel Brad Gilbert would be too much for the laid-back Swiss on a personal level; Larry Stefanki is already employed; and the ideal candidate, Darren Cahill, says he is unwilling to travel the tour for the whole year. If he could be made to change his mind, it could be the tonic Federer needs to finally surpass Sampras as the most prolific champion of all time.

For all the whispers about his decline though, it is worth remembering that he is still very much a contender in every event he plays, and this could still turn this into another superb year. Besides Nadal, Murray and, to a lesser extent, Novak Djokovic; he still expects to beat everyone else he plays, including the likes of Gilles Simon who he has lost to in their last two meetings.

So are there any banana skins awaiting Federer ([10.0] to win this week) during this week's Monte Carlo event that could prevent another final match up with Rafael Nadal. He should certainly get past Andreas Seppi in his first match, and then the likes of Stanislas Wawrinka and Juan Monaco to make it to the semi-finals, where he will probably face Djokovic ([23.0]) once more.

If he can beat the Serb, who first has to get past the likes of Fernando Verdasco ([50.0]) and David Ferrer ([60.0]) to book his spot in the last four, it would be a huge confidence boost. Then it would be another final against Nadal ([1.4]), where he would be expected to lose. With the pressure off his shoulders, he could relax and play the type of uninhibited tennis that can make him unplayable. Alternatively, he could suffer another morale-sapping defeat the likes of which we witnessed during last year's Roland Garros final, further decreasing his aura and quickening his demise.

However, it could also ultimately be just what he needs, if it makes him realise that he would be well served with a coach by his side to give him a fresh perspective as he seeks to re-establish himself as the world number one, and the game's greatest ever player. Then his life on court would be almost as perfect as it appears to be off-court.