Miami Women's Final Betting: Vika to vanquish Maria

Players Under the Microscope / Guy McCrea / 01 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Guy believes Azarenka could be in contention at the Slams

"I can’t shake the feeling that the former world number one might be tired after recent efforts... "

Maria Sharapova and Victoria Azarenka meet to decide the coveted Miami Open title this weekend. Guy McCrea considers who might come out on top of this intriguing clash ...

Victory in Miami can prove crucial to a player's season. Often referred to as the 'fifth Slam', this title carries huge ranking points, prize money and prestige. While it does herald the end of the winter hardcourt swing, winning Miami can also bestow momentum for the rest of the campaign. This weekend's showpiece between two-time former finalist Maria Sharapova and 2009 champion Victoria Azarenka is likely to be no different. The two stars are at different stages of their careers, but for both this final represents an opportunity to show that they can be major players at the upcoming Grand Slams.

Sharapova has done a decent job of making herself relevant again this past month, following up a semi-final run in Indian Wells. By winning her marathon quarter-final against Alexandra Dulgheru, Sharapova re-entered the WTA top ten and with few ranking points to defend over the next three months, the Russian could be back in the top five by the end of Wimbledon. But even if she wins Miami, can Sharapova go on and claim the fourth Grand Slam title she craves? I remain unconvinced.

However motivated she is, I can't see Sharapova [22.0] winning the French Open. Clay is her weakest surface and I don't think she can produce the required energy levels and sustained performance to win seven matches in Paris. In Miami, Sharapova's shown that she remains a formidable ball-striker with remarkable fighting spirit. But post shoulder surgery, her serve is a liability and she can no longer be backed to consistently overpower opponents.

For her part, Azarenka has impressed en route to her second Miami final. The Belarussian survived two-hour battles with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Dominika Cibulkova and dispatched both Kim Clijsters and Vera Zvonareva in straight sets. Due to injuries, Clijsters wasn't entirely at the races but take nothing away from Azarenka for staying focused and finishing the job. She was equally relentless against Zvonareva.

Regular readers know that I've been critical of Azarenka's mental focus in the past. But she has shown bundles this past fortnight. Still only 21-years-old, perhaps now is the time for Azarenka to go deep at the Slams and fulfil her huge potential. Everything I have seen of her these past two weeks suggests she can be a contender at both the French Open and Wimbledon.

Returning to this weekend's final, we can expect a good battle between Sharapova and Azarenka. Both can make spectators reach for their ear plugs with the noise they produce on-court, both are most at home on American hardcourts and they possess similar baseline games. They also have two victories apiece from their four previous meetings.

In many ways, the final will come down to how well both women serve and who can dictate the baseline exchanges. Azarenka didn't even face a break point in her semi-final and if the Belarussian can again hold serve so comfortably, it will put huge pressure on Sharapova's extremely fragile delivery. Azarenka did this to excellent effect to beat Sharapova in their most recent meeting in Stanford last year, punishing the Russian's weak second serves. Sharapova is also prone to plenty of double faults and needless to say she must keep these to a minimum to stay in with a chance against Azarenka.

Sharapova does own an excellent career record (104/36) in three set matches, and has won all five that she's played so far this season. But if you want to back the Russian, I think her best chance of victory is actually to win the title in straight sets, decent value at around 4.2.

I can't shake the feeling that the former world number one might be tired after recent efforts though, which is why I plump for Azarenka to win the coveted Miami crown for a second time, and give herself a timely boost ahead of the clay court campaign.

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Back Azarenka to win Miami at around [1.68]