Betfair Official Blog

Just how far can Novak Djokovic go on clay ?

Click here to view market

Has Novak Djokovic got what it takes to beat Rafael Nadal in a five set thriller at Roland Garros? Barry Millns thumbs through the form book to assess his chances.

After an intriguing first four months to this season the next couple could have a huge bearing on who stands where in the Top 3 at the end of the year. Having just won his fourth successive Monte Carlo Masters Series title Rafael Nadal remains very much the King of Clay, but over the next few weeks it will be interesting to see if Novak Djokovic's threat to the Spaniard proves to be greater than Roger Federer's.

Had the young Serb not felt dizzy and pulled up during his Monte Carlo semi-final against Federer, the 20 year-old Australian Open champion might well have faced Nadal on clay for the first time since last year's semi-final at Roland Garros. He lost that in straight sets as he did in Rome a month earlier and Djokovic clearly had some work to do to close the gap between them.

But back then Djokovic was ranked No.6 and still a month away from breaking into the Top 3 for the first time. Yet all the work he has put into improving every facet of his game since, with the careful guidance of his coach Marian Vajda, has reaped dividends.

The way Djokovic dismissed Ivan Ljubicic, Andy Murray and Sam Querrey all in straights sets for the loss of just 14 games underlined his improvement - he seemed to have so much time on the ball - and it was a pretty impressive first outing on the terre battue this year. He broke serve a total of 13 times in those three matches, dropped his own only twice, scored two 6-0 sets in the process and while admitting that his game on clay is not yet as good as it is on hard courts, showed that it is not lagging far behind.

Twelve months ago Nadal had 4,875 ranking points compared to Djokovic's 2,595; now Nadal is on 5,655 with the Serb up to 4,935. After Nadal's title defence this week in Barcelona (where he is currently trading at [1.27] for the title) he will have 1,850 more points to defend in Rome, Hamburg and Roland Garros compared to Djokovic with only 700, so opportunity knocks for the Serb to close the gap between them still further or maybe even overtake Rafa.

But that is far easier said than done, of course, if the world No.2 continues with the kind of incredible form which he displayed throughout his first week back on the dirt. Having ended his nine-month title drought the 21 year-old Spaniard will be in no mood to start another anytime soon and for all his phenomenal success already on his favourite surface, he keeps working as hard as anyone on improving his game.

Prior to Federer's sixth loss in seven clay court encounters with Nadal, he also knocked out David Ferrer and Nikolay Davydenko, the next best players on the surface. So how can Djokovic overcome him?

Basically to play at the level he did at Melbourne Park in January and then some! In other words: serve powerfully at a high percentage; return with great pace, accuracy and variety; run down everything; remain patient in punishing rallies but also press buttons at the right moments, be it with his up-the-line two-handers, drop shots or surprise attacks to the net, volleying either deep or with short angles but never in between. Not much to ask!

You only have to look at Federer's failure to win the second set of last Sunday's final from 4-love up to see what a monumental task it is to try and master Nadal on clay. But then the Swiss has mental baggage when it comes to battling his nemesis on the red stuff, primarily because he has still not won the French Open, and for all his undoubted spells of brilliance in that last match, Federer's inability to sustain them for long enough cost him yet again.

Six years younger than Federer, Djokovic is still a rising force in the game rather than at its very peak. Consequently he is as yet unburdened by such concerns and full of confidence as he strives for top of the rankings which he fully believes he will reach.

He will certainly need all of his great self-belief if he is to beat Nadal on the dirt for the first time. But while beating Nadal over best-of-three sets is certainly conceivable in Djokovic's case, I still wonder whether he has sufficient stamina to do it at the French Open over best-of-five, bearing in mind that nobody has ever done that before!