French Open Betting: Demi-goddess or underachiever?

Players Under the Microscope / Guy McCrea / 04 May 2010 / 1 Comments

Dementieva stretches on the clay of Roland Garros

"It may not be Dementieva’s favourite surface, but the same is true of most of her title rivals and unlike them, she's in decent form and injury free."

The debate rages on as to whether Elena Dementieva is a success story of women's tennis or an underachiever for never winning a Slam. It's also up for debate if she ever will, Guy McCrea looks at the evidence ahead of the French Open...

Whatever you think of her, it is hard to argue that Elena Dementieva has not enjoyed a successful career. She is a stalwart of the women's game who played her first Grand Slam main draw at the Australian Open back in 1999.

The Russian's resume is highlighted by the Olympic singles gold she won at the 2008 Beijing Games. Close behind are her two appearances in Grand Slam singles finals during 2004 - at the French and U.S. Opens.

Dementieva has sixteen WTA Tour singles titles to her name - including two this season in Sydney and at the Paris Indoor. The Russian has amassed over $13 million in prize money and occupies fourteenth place on the WTA Tour's all-time earners list.
But for me, there are two more impressive statistics. Dementieva has qualified for the year-end WTA Championships for eight of the past nine years. In 2007, she only just missed out - despite being injured for two months. No player has made more appearances in the past decade.

Then, there is her ranking history. Dementieva reached world number three in April of last year. Good? Well, get this: she has been inside the top twenty in the world rankings for the whole of the last decade! So, why is a woman with this record still to hoist a Grand Slam trophy at the age of 28?

In the past, the problem was Dementieva's serve. For all her athletic prowess, the Russian's delivery was a liability. At the 2004 French Open, Dementieva won just three games and hit ten double faults as she allowed compatriot Anastasia Myskina to clinch the title. At the U.S. Open three months later, Dementieva crumbled in straight sets to the then 19 year old Svetlana Kuznetsova. Dementieva double faulted in each of the four service games she lost during that final.

Without doubt, she has improved her serve, thanks to some important remedial work with renowned American coaches Andy Brandi and Harold Solomon. But it is still occasionally suspect. The bigger issue that underpins it remains and is much harder to fix - Dementieva's mental fragility.

Her record against most of the female Grand Slam champions in the past decade illustrates this. Despite winning over 550 WTA singles matches during her career, Dementieva owns losing records against Serena Williams (3-7), Venus Williams (3-9), Justine Henin (2-11) and Kim Clijsters (3-11). Tellingly, she has lost all eight of her Grand Slam meetings with these players. That is not to say that Dementieva hasn't played well or had chances during those career-defining clashes. She held match point against Serena during last year's Wimbledon semi-final in a match considered the best of the women's season. But not for the first time, the Russian seemingly didn't possess the belief to finish the job.

Despite these faults, the forthcoming French Open may represent Dementieva's best chance to finally end her Grand Slam drought. The Russian is priced up at around 20.0 to win.. Backing Dementieva might seem too bold - as she's made it past the fourth round just twice in Paris and has won only two clay court titles in her career. It may not be Dementieva's favourite surface, but the same is true of most of her title rivals and unlike them, she's in decent form and injury free.

The exception of course is Justine Henin - especially after her recent win on the clay in Stuttgart. She is definitely Dementieva's nemesis and it would be difficult to back the Russian should they meet at Roland Garros. But the draw could keep them apart and there will be other women who will feel that Henin, while comfortable as ever on the clay, might not prove as all-conquering on it as she once was. In Stuttgart, the Belgian seemed to doubt her usually reliable serve and forehand at times.

If Henin is taken out, Dementieva should feel she has every chance. No one knows how the Williams sisters will fare on the surface that they like least, while Kim Clijsters faces a race to be fit for Roland Garros after injuring her left foot. Defending French Open champion Svetlana Kuznetsova is a world away from her superb form of 2009, having suffered early defeats in Stuttgart and Rome. Last year's losing finalist Dinara Safina has also only just returned from a serious back problem.

Dementieva is as fit as ever, and the red clay can suit her powerful groundstrokes and excellent defensive skills. With her rivals' problems, can the Russian take that one, final step? This might be the best chance she gets.

Comments (1)

1. jo | 05 May 2010

   seriously, this is not going to happen. even with the days henin wasn't there, she didn't capituliate, changes are gone. dementieva didn't do well at all after paris tournament (of course she unfortunately drew henin in miami). i'd think her chance is still slim IF she didn't have to face henin. but i have a strong feeling (like jokes from tennis angels), that she will face henin in her path again. it's just like that (the more you don't want it, the more likely to happen.....)