General / Matthew Walton / 01 May 2008 / Leave a comment

"Magical" Matthew Walton highlights the statistics which tell you which players to back and which to oppose during this European clay court season.

Last time out, we discussed how the application of a little bit of lateral thinking could improve our strike rate when it comes to betting on specific surfaces (hard, clay, carpet and grass).

This week my aim is to take this study a step further with another look at the subject, albeit from a slightly different angle, and in so doing develop a more informed and successful way of betting throughout the current European clay court season.

To briefly re-cap: we previously argued the case that players, by playing a certain percentage of their matches on a particular surface, were 'tipping us off' as to their favourite (and so most successful) type of court. As such, this provided another valuable piece in the complex jigsaw that we call 'form study'.

Here we move that debate on to a higher level where we look at the specific win/loss ratio of players on a given surface - in this case clay. So it's not just the number of matches that is the key, it is also the number of matches they win.

The table below lists the top 50 players in the ATP Tour Rankings as of April 28th. You will see four columns by each player's name.

We have the total number of matches played in their career and the overall percentage of matches won. This is followed by the total number of matches played on clay and the percentage of matches won, again solely on clay.

As with all our tables, it illustrates some very interesting points :-

You're looking, primarily, for two things:

Players With A Positive Clay/Overall Record - that is, the guys whose win percentage on clay is higher than their overall career strike rate. Take the top man on dirt, Rafael Nadal. His overall win percentage, on all surfaces, is 79%. However, on clay alone this soars to a remarkable 91%.

That's 12% on the 'positive' side. Same goes for the likes of Volandri (11%), Ferrero (9%), Almagro & Acasuso (8%), Monaco, Starace & Simon (7%) and Moya (6%).

The higher the percentage, the greater a player's prowess on the surface. And, as you'll see, these guys really up the ante on dirt and, arguably, play to a level higher than their official rankings.

Players With A Negative Clay/Overall Record - those players with a lower percentage on clay than on other surfaces. Here you have to start with Roger Federer, although a 5% deficit in his case is none too shabby.

Better examples come with Tursunov & Mahut (18%), Llodra (16%), Fish (14%), Blake (13%) and Soderling (10%). However, top of the list, with a whopping 30%, is none other than Andy Murray. A player who learned his trade as a junior on the clay courts of Spain but now can't buy a win on dirt (see recent wide margin losses to Djokovic and, more alarmingly, Mario Ancic).

These guys can do it on faster surfaces but either through a lack of ability or confidence, or a plain and simple shortage of desire, just can't do it on the clay.

The application of these figures, as we hinted in our previous article, works best when there's a strong positive or negative on either side of a potential match bet. This fact, added to the other more obvious match betting guides (current form, head-to-head form, tournament record etc) will increase the depth of your analysis and so, in principle, generate better bets and bigger profits.

So when we get two guys with close world rankings and similar career histories but one is +9% and the other is -9% then we're looking at a potential mismatch. Or, we would argue, a potentially good bet.

We also note the differential for the 'traditional' clay courters when they play on faster surfaces is much less than we see when the 'dyed in the wool' hard courters try to play on clay - i.e. on average, the positive figures are much smaller than the negative figures.

What this might very well tell us is that clay court tennis is more of a specialist discipline, whereas faster courts are played on by all players to a much closer general standard. And, with the majority of ATP events being played on such courts, that is understandable.

And finally, in more general terms, a point which re-inforces last week's article. See the likes of Fish, Querrey, Mahut and Murray compared to Nadal, Moya, Robredo and Nalbandian. The higher the win percentage on clay, the more matches these players play on the surface (and vice-versa). There is a direct correlation.

What we have shown once again is the importance of reading between the form lines in order to determine the strongest possible bets. Giving ourselves a better chance of success than other, less well-informed, backers on Betfair.

Make a note of these players and see how the likes of Nadal, Almagro and Monaco should be considered as bankers and, shamefully, the Andy Murray's of this world are the blow outs!

Tags: Andy Murray, Clay Court Betting, French Open Betting, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Tennis Betting