General / Matthew Walton / 13 June 2008 / Leave a comment

"Magical" Matthew Walton reviews May on tour, revisiting previous articles and seeing which lessons should have been learned from past tour action.

It's something of a watershed this time of year on tour. The grass court season signals the end of the first half of the season and very much the start of the second half.

Rafael Nadal has had his moment of glory, now is it the time for Roger Federer to further his claims for tennis immortality on the lawns of SW19? We shall have to wait and see.

Here we look back of the past month or so of action and illustrate how our previous pieces have been proved right, or wrong, by what we've seen played out on the clay courts of Europe. We can take stock, make comment and then move on as we enter the second phase of the season - further European action but the key change will soon be to North America and the build up to the US Open, always an exciting event.

It's been an exclusive diet of clay action but that hasn't meant the same old story every time, i.e. Rafael Nadal. Mind you, he did land a fourth consective French Open title with a blistering performance against Roger Federer. He simply has no competition on clay at present and could prove to be the best we've ever seen on the surface.

Of more interest was the better form of Novak Djokovic, surely his new main challenger on this surface in the future. Nikolay Davydenko carried on some good recent play and the likes of Wawrinka and Simon did their rankings a world of good with great showings in Rome and Casablanca respectively.

Could we have seen these results coming? A look at some of our previous articles will show you that a few familiar themes have come to pass in the last few weeks. Observe them, understand them, follow them and profit could very well be your reward.

Grand Slam Set Betting - Logic No Longer Applies

If you think the deeper you get into a tournament, the better the players and the closer the matches - well, think again. The statistics tend to suggest the opposite and when we reach the quarter-finals, semi-finals and the final itself we actually get shorter matches. For example, in the recent French Open, of the last 15 matches played we saw 10 straight sets wins (including the final itself, over in 22 games!) and only one match went the distance.

Average Players Just Don't Defend Their Titles

Nadal retains his title in Paris. He was the only champion to defend his crown in the last month. In 2007 we saw Kohlschreiber (Munich), Mathieu (Casablanca) and Monaco (Portschach) win titles but none was able to defend this time around - although Monaco did make the final. Unless you are a top 5 performer, the first name to cross of any tournament field is the defending champion.

Top Seeds Don't Have It All Their Own Way

Similar to the above, another group who you can treat with healthy scepticism are the No.1 seeds. Yes, they win their fair share of events but they won just 16 of 65 events in 2007 and have so far won just 7 of 31 tournaments in 2008. Whilst they might catch the eye, like a favourite in a horserace, we should remember that Seeding Committees aren't form experts ... and a good thing it is too!

Surface Tension - Carpet Burns Or Feet Of Clay?

Ask yourself why, the week after the French Open, two weeks before a Grand Slam on grass, there were top players like Nikolay Davydenko, Tommy Robredo and Guillermo Canas prefering to play on clay than on the grass. It's clear by a player's choice of surface where they prefer to play, how much they themselves like a surface and for us, as backers, to calculate how they will perform on a different surface.

Finals - Won In The Mind, Not On The Court

Rafael Nadal has 77% of the finals he's played in. Stanislas Wawrinka has won 16%. Novak Djokovic has won 77% of the finals he's played in. Julien Benneteau has lost his only final to date. Ok, Benneteau may well improve that record but the way to win a final is first to win it in your own head. Many players have alarming statistics in finals. When the going gets tough, they simply don't get going!

As you can see from these articles, there are significant lessons to be learned by studying the statistical data which surrounds the ATP Tour.

Thankfully, we do that for you - so there's no reason for you to not take it on board when you're using Betfair.

Normally in these pieces we include an additional list of 'Who's Hot' and 'Who's Not' on tour. Well, given the peculiarities of the grass we'll keep this back until we return to more stable surfaces next month but - just for some quick revision - do go back to last week's piece as this will give you a good starting point for your grass-related betting.

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