General / Simon Mundie / 31 July 2008 /

Simon Mundie reveals why the belief that Nadal is certain to take over as world number one might just be a little premature, and why Fed is stuck in a race for number two.

So four and half years of dominance the likes of which has never been seen before in the men's game looks like it may well be at en end. Roger Federer is now only 300 ranking points ahead of Rafael Nadal- the closest the number 1 and 2 ranked players have been since the Swiss took charge at the top of the rankings at the beginning of 2004. Indeed, at times during his reign Federer could have taken months away from the tour, and still returned streets ahead of his nearest rivals.

This year, though, things have been very different for Roger Federer. He was knocked out in the semi-finals of the Australian Open by World number 3 Novak Djokovic, and was humbled by much lesser players in Mardy Fish and Radek Stepanek, as well as up-and-comers like our very own Andy Murray.

He seemed to be returning to some form during the clay court season, before his humiliating drubbing at the hands of Rafael Nadal in the French Open final. The World number 1 long protested that observers were getting carried away with his demise, but he was proved to be the man in denial when he lost his Wimbledon crown in the greatest men's final of all time. He has yet to win a Grand Slam, or even a masters series title, this term.

Nadal by contrast has been in blistering form for most of the year, particularly of late. He's won his last five tournament including Grand Slams on clay and grass, as well as the Masters series title in Toronto on hard courts last week. He is clearly the best player in the world so far this year in all but ranking.

Federer has refused to concede that Nadal is a shoe in for his position at the pinnacle of the men's game, but once again it seems he may well be in denial. If you take a look at the Champions race (calculated solely on results since the start of the year) Nadal is streets ahead. He's got 1055 points compared to 686 for Federer. In actual fact, the story could well be the race for third place, bearing in mind Djokovic has 674 points, an almost negligible 12 behind the Swiss Maestro.

So why is Federer refusing to concede he is likely to lose the number one ranking? Part of it is down to the fact that in the last two years Nadal has faded quite dramatically between now and the end of the year. In 2006 and 2007, he failed to win a title of any description after reaching the Wimbledon final. Accepted thinking was that the hard courts blunted Nadal's weapons and the wear and tear on his body proved too much. By way of contrast, Federer would win almost everything in sight including the US Open, culminating in a victory at the Masters Cup at the end of the year.

But last week Nadal proved he can produce the big performances expected of the world's best on hardcourts. He once again ripped through a strong field, and showed he can make the necessary adjustments to avoid being dominated by the games big hitters. The question is whether he can maintain the astounding level of performance he's shown over the past few months. If he can, Federer's choke hold is well and truly over.

As for Federer, he desperately needs to up his game to the level he has shown in recent years, and quickly. If he can win the title this week in Cincinatti, build a winning run that we know he is extremely capable of doing, and hope someone takes care of Nadal, things could get interesting. The action would then move on to the US Open, where Federer is the four times defending Champion; and where Nadal has yet to reach a semi-final. You would expect the Spaniard to break that duck this year, but if he doesn't and Federer makes it five in a row, it could boil down to the indoor season. And on the slick indoor courts in Europe you would expect Federer to post the more impressive results, which means it could come to the Masters cup in Shanghai, where Federer feels right at home.

In truth, however, that's the best case scenario for Roger Federer. So far this year he's shown no sign of building a long winning streak, and players who were beaten before they stepped on court now fancy their chances against the 12 time Grand Slam Champion. Rafael Nadal, by contrast, shows little sign of slowing down, and it would be a major surprise if he faded as he has done in the past two seasons. And that can only mean one thing: the King is dead, long live the King.

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