Women's French Open Final Betting: Safina v Kuznetsova

French Open Betting / Gary Boswell / 06 June 2009 / Leave a Comment

Gary Boswell previews Saturday's showdown in the Women's Singles at Roland Garros in what some are dubbing the battle of the Russian bridesmaids.

Dinara Safina has been a losing finalist in three major tournaments in the past twelve months whilst Svetlana Kuznetsova has a staggering eighteen career losing finals to her name. One of these notorious chokers, however, is destined to triumph at Roland Garros on Saturday and it's [1.45] that the new world number one and baby sister of Marat will prevail.

Safina has looked comfortable in her role at the pinnacle of the world ranking - a position ironically prophesised twelve months ago by the retiring Justine Henin as one to be taken up by Svetlana Kuznetsova! Her price of [3.15] can be viewed as a trifle generous considering that she is the previous grand slam winner (Flushing Meadows in 2004).

The infamous wobble that has cost her numerous times throughout her career is undoubtedly still around in her make-up but, like compatriot Elena Dementieva, she does seem to have strategies for dealing with it now. The bizarre 'toilet break at the end of the second set' to refresh the make-up and rejig the attire worked wonders in her quarter against Serena and her semi against Stosur. She came out both times literally looking like a new woman and the final two closing points against Stosur were in the A game bracket suggesting that the mental wobble is put away in the past history drawer.

Finals are a different animal though and these two have played two this year already. Kuznetsova prevailed in Stuttgart and Safina in Rome and the interesting fact is that neither match needed a third set. What catches my eye on the set betting market is that Kuznetsova is [6.2] to win 2-0 whilst you can cover that with 2-0 Safina at [2.14].

Those who think it will be tighter are sure to be interested in the tie break odds and you can get [2.52] on there being at least one.

Personally though I'm going back to the two recent finals which reflect the way in which these players are closely matched on their heads to heads. It's four games all over the years on clay for the two 23 year olds and very much a case of first one wins and then the other and with those finals in Stuttgart and Rome this year both being clear cut, I'm considering a portfolio play on the first set correct score markets. 6-2 and 6-3 either way were the scores earlier this year and Safina can be backed at [7.0] to win 6-2 and [5.0] to win 6-3 whilst Kuznetsova is a whopping [14.0] to get the double break and [10.0] to post 6-3. That strikes me as an interesting portfolio to show a first set profit in a match where I don't have a strong opinion on who will win.

When that is the case, I usually side with the underdog and I was very impressed with the way Kuznetsova regularly applauded her opponent's good shots in her semi against Stosur. A sort of snooker table tapping appreciation which you see rarely in women's tennis so I think my heart has warmed to Kuznetsova but I worry that her ankle - turned over against Serena and strapped up against Stosur - won't hold out the barrage likely to come her way from the Safina end.

And Safina does look on a mission to land her first Grand Slam and fuflfil the family prophesy of being tennis' first brother/sister World Number one/grand slam winning combination. Her wobbling is less overt than Kuznetsova's and the transformation of the past eighteen months does look complete. She is a worthy favourite but at [1.45], she is still not my idea of a value bet!