The Betting Challenge Week 41: Fed up with all of the Nadal hype

French Open Betting / Jack Houghton / 23 May 2010 / Leave a Comment

Federer can beat Nadal mano-a-mano if they meet in the final as expected

"It is his performance against Nadal in the final in Madrid that we should focus on then. Although the Spaniard got the better of Federer, it remains the case that — even on clay — there is very little between these two players: with the match revolving around a few key points that Federer squandered."

Having called last year's French Open winner, Jack Houghton is back to tennis for more of the same and tells us where his precious £100 is going in Week 41.

It was around this time last year that I began to feel like a betting god. A series of winning tips -- at big prices -- had been posted on events ranging from the Dubai World Cup to the London Marathon to the Boat Race.

Then came the French Open. In an article predicting the decline of Nadal and the resurgence of Federer, it became apparent this was no lucky run of tips. This was something else. A deity was forming. And so, with confidence springing forth like a white-head exploding on the mirror, I took on this fateful betting challenge.

Unfortunately, to date, things haven't gone so well, and people are starting to question whether I am, as was once clearly established, the second coming; or whether I'm just second-rate. I'm hoping the French Open will swing the debate back my way.

At the current prices, Federer is value to win his second French Open title and keep alive his Grand Slam hopes. True, Nadal should be favourite. Whereas he came into the tournament last year having lost to Federer in Madrid, this year the Spaniard seems to have reasserted his clay court dominance -- with straight victories in Monte Carlo, Rome and Madrid.

Federer, in contrast, has looked uninspired on the clay so far this year: with an early exit in Rome followed by an unconvincing performance when beaten in the semis by Albert Montanes at the Estoril Open. However, in the last couple of seasons, playing in fewer tournaments than earlier in his career, Federer has demonstrated an uncanny ability to bring himself to a peak in time for a surface's grand slam, despite not wowing in the warm-up events.

It is his performance against Nadal in the final in Madrid that we should focus on then. Although the Spaniard got the better of Federer, it remains the case that -- even on clay -- there is very little between these two players: with the match revolving around a few key points that Federer squandered. And it is worth remembering that the final was Nadal's fifteenth match on clay this season; whereas it was only Federer's ninth. Assuming Federer makes another step forward in his slow-court form in Paris then, a final between the two will be little more than a coin toss.

And Federer has the best draw. Montanes aside, none of the rest -- Soderling, Monfils and Cilic -- have been playing well enough this season to trouble an in-form Federer; so you would expect the world number one to progress effortlessly to a semi-final match against the second quarter winner. Nadal though has Verdasco and Gonzalez to contend with in his quarter - both players capable of causing an upset on their day.

On balance then, Federer, at [5.9], looks huge value to follow up his debut win in this event of last year, and the Betting Challenge is having £80 on.

With huge doubts surrounding both Murray and Djokovic, the betting on the second and third quarter winners looks out of kilter. Gasquet, the winner in Nice, is huge value at [10.0] to cause a minor upset in Murray' group and reach the semis. The Betting Challenge is having £30 on. And with both Ferrer and Querry showing good clay form this year, Djokovic is looking vulnerable in his quarter of the draw. We're laying him for £30 at [2.32].

In other news, those who expressed a view in the outcome of an event previewed here back in January (all one of you) -- it was a boy, Toby Dylan.

This week's bets:

£80 BACK Federer at [5.9] to win French Open.
£30 BACK Gasquet at [10.0] to win French Open Second Quarter.
£30 LAY Djokovic at [2.32] to win French Open Third Quarter.

Already recommended:

£20 LAY France at [2.2] to win Group A - 18/04/10.
£20 BACK Mexico at [4.7] to win Group A- 18/04/10.
£20 BACK of South Korea at [3.8] to qualify from Group B- 18/04/10.
£20 BACK of Honduras at [6.0] to qualify from Group H - 18/04/10.