Betfair Official Blog

French Open men's singles preview

Suddenly it's a two-horse race where a week ago not many Betfair punters would bet against Rafael Nadal.

They may not bet against him even now as he trades at 1.78 to win the men's singles title when the French Open starts in Paris on Sunday.

He's won on the last two visits to Roland Garros, so what better way to celebrate his 21st birthday in week two than to complete a hat-trick of Paris titles. It would make him the first man since Bjorn Borg made it four in a row in 1981 to do the hat-trick. Borg was top seed for every one of those four wins and completed six wins from six final appearances in all between 1974 and 1981.

It's too early to talk about Nadal reveling in the joy of six by 2010, especially with other young stars like Serbian Novak Djokovic - who was 20 on Tuesday - coming through.

Had Nadal won his first Hamburg title last Sunday and extended his amazing record of clay court wins beyond 81 matches then he would be an overwhelming favourite.

Instead, Roger Federer stopped his gallop and at the same time lifted himself out of the doldrums just in time to bid for the one Grand Slam title yet to elude him.

It's not as if he has had a disastrous time. But any defeat for the world No 1 creates shock waves. So when Guillermo Canas beat him twice in a row on the hard courts of Indian Wells and Miami then ripples started.

Then when Italaian Filippo Volandri hammered him in the last 16 of the Rome Masters 6-2 6-4 the rumour mill really got to work. That triggered his parting with coach and 1966 French Open winner Tony Roche, as Federer decided to go it alone - with instant results.

It's not as if Federer can't play on clay. He had won the Hamburg title three times before and he rallied from dropping the first set to win 2-6 6-2 6-0 and rock Nadal.

Interestingly there are two other former French Open winners competing in Paris who were in that Hamburg line-up and Federer also beat them, toppling Juan Carlos Ferrero in the last 16 and Carlos Moya 4-6 6-4 6-2 in the semi-finals.

Of course, Federer rocked Nadal in last year's French Open final when he took the first set in blistering style 6-1. But he couldn't sustain the momentum, and Nadal finally got the better of him by taking the next three sets 6-1 6-4 7-6.

A year earlier Federer had reached the Paris semi-finals before losing to Nadal 6-3 4-6 6-4 6-3 as the young Majorcan went on to take the title with a four-set win over unseeded Mariano Puerta.

But it's not all bad for Federer. Don't forget he started the year by winning the Australian Open without dropping a set.

He won the Dubai title, beating Djokovic, Tommy Haas and Mikhail Youzhny on the way.

And he beat Spain's claycourt danger men David Ferrer and Ferrero again, just as in Hamburg, on the way to the final in Monte Carlo before losing to Nadal for the second year running in the Principality.

It's all set up nicely for another Federer-Nadal duel as the Spaniard chases his hat-trick and the Swiss world No 1 eyes his 49th career title and a first Grand Slam on clay. Betfair have him trading at 3.4 to win.

So can anyone stop the top two? Comeback man Canas is an obvious danger although since his two wins over Federer and his final appearances in Miami and Rome, his form has dipped slightly. But he is up to No 21 in the world in a matter of months after his 15-month substance ban. Federer will hope he's in Nadal's half of the draw.

Russian Nikolay Davydenko is another danger on clay. He is 26 on June 2 and would love to celebrate by improving on his quarter-final effort last year and his semi-final in 2005. His 27-9 record on clay last year shows he has what it takes. His best result this clay court season was in Rome when he reached the semi-finals before losing a close contest to Nadal 7-6 6-7 6-4.

And for an outside bet, don't ignore 27-year-old Ferrero, the 2003 winner and 2002 runner-up. His best recent effort was a semi-final place at the Monte Carlo Masters before losing to Federer.

Britain's interest has all but vanished with the absence of Andy Murray following his wrist injury but the other young gun worth keeping an eye on is Djokovic, who beat Canas in Miami after toppling Nadal in the quarter-finals and Murray in the semi-finals of the Masters event to burst into the world's top 10. Djokovic is trading at 46.

The other winner at Roland Garros is Moya but that was back in 1998. Now nearly 31, he has reached the Hamburg semi-finals and the Acapulco and Sydney finals this year but has not won a title since Buenos Aires last year.

In the final analysis it all points to a Nadal - Federer final - unless Canas or one of the other contenders can put the skids under the Swiss ace on the red clay of Roland Garros.

Tomorrow's seeding list and draw (Friday) will give a clearer picture of where the potential banana skins lie.