French Open Betting / Ben Caudell / 01 June 2009 / Leave a comment

And Frenchman Tsonga can benefit by advancing past Del Potro.

Probably the biggest upset in modern tennis was witnessed yesterday as world number one Rafael Nadal lost for the first time ever at the French Open. Nadal's astonishing 31- match unbeaten run was halted by the biggest of all surprises, Robin Soderling from Sweden, a player Nadal totally decimated a month ago in a 6-1 6-0 win at the Rome Masters.

The biggest victory of Soderling's career sent the reigning champion crashing out 6-2, 6-7, 6-4, 7-6 in just under three hours and 30 minutes. Soderling had lost his previous three matches against the Spaniard but seemed a man possessed on the Phillippe Chartier court taking advantage of Nadal's lack of depth and unleashing formidable ground strokes that pinned the Spaniard back, nullifying Nadal's attacks. Soderling will meet Nikolay Davydenko in the quarter-finals after the Russian defeated Fernando Verdasco in straight sets.

Nadal's loss has opened up the outright winners market with Roger Federer the new favourite at [2.26] to win the tournament. My opening day tip to back Fernando Gonzalez @ [150.0] has paid off, the Chilean is now as short as 13.5 to lay, generating copious amounts of profit, he will shorten even further if he beats Andy Murray in Tuesdays match-up and will become the second favourite to win the tournament.

Today's Selections

Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG) v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA)
The men's winner market has been blown wide open since Nadal's loss to Soderling yesterday afternoon. Each and every player still left in the draw will feel they have a good chance of winning this year's event. Roger Federer will be in especially good spirits knowing that this is his best chance of winning all four Grand Slam events, The French Open so far the only one to elude him. The French players left in at Roland Garros, Gael Monfils, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will also be optimistic as they will be the ones with the crowd's raucous support behind them.

Today's match between the fifth and ninth ranked players in the world, Del Potro and Tsonga, will be the one to watch today. Del Potro has a 2-0 head-to-head series lead over the enigmatic Tsonga, one on hard court and the other on indoor hard. Both these matches were close affairs, the fine line between each win for Del Potro can also be highlighted by stats at this year's French Open. Del Potro has won 82% and 49% behind his first and second serve compared with Tsonga's 77% and 51 %, The Argentinean has been broken five times and Tsonga seven. Tsonga has made more unforced errors than Del Potro however this is partly due to the opposition each player has played so far.

Tsonga will have the slight advantage in this match if he serves as well as he has done all week, his firepower and explosive style of play will startle the Argentinean early on in the match. Tsonga relishes this type of match and will have the crowd on his side. And that mix could see Del Potro hit by a little stage fright. Another fact is that Del Potro has a 0-8 record against top 10opposition at Grand Slam level compared with Tsonga's 4-4. This match will be highly competitive, so take Tsongas inflated odds at the start of the match and trade out at a shorter price.

Selections...
Back Tsonga @ [2.9] to win match and trade out at [1.5]
Back Over 39.5 Games @ [1.9]
Back Five Sets @ [4.0] (small bet)