French Open Betting / Ben Caudell / 02 June 2009 / Leave a comment

If Andy Murray is to reach the semi-finals of the French Open, he will have to contain the most powerful shot in tennis, says Ben Caudell...

Roger Federer proved his fighting qualities are still intact after coming back from a two set deficit to defeat Tommy Haas in five sets, 6-7 5-7, 6-4, 6-0, 6-2. After the shock departures of Novak Djokovic on Saturday and Rafael Nadal on Sunday, the pressure was on the Swiss master to capitalise on the misfortunes of others in his quest to finally win the Grand Slam that has eluded him.

The next hurdle Federer will face is a quarter-final showdown against the last remaining French player, Gael Monfils. The enigmatic Monfils, who reached a Grand Slam-best semi-final last year in Paris, before losing to Federer in four sets, defeated Andy Roddick 6-4, 6-2, 6-3.

The biggest upset of the day came in the women's event; Sorana Cirstea upset No.5 seed and former number one Jelena Jankovic in a dramatic final set 3-6, 6-0, 9-7. Romanian Cirstea whose win over Jankovic was her second straight top 10 win having beaten Caroline Wozniacki in the prior round will now face Samantha Stosur of Australia.

Todays Selections:

Andy Murray (GBR) v Fernando Gonzalez (CHI)
I'm finding it hard to go against Gonzalez, who I backed at [150.00] in the outright winner market pre-tournament.

I predicted that these two would meet in the quarter-finals and Gonzalez, the better clay court player, will reach the next round. It helps that Nadal lost to Soderling in the fourth round, the draw is now wide open with every player left in the event believing they can do the impossible and win the French Open.

Fernando Gonzalez is the last man in the tournament still to drop a set and therefore has the best stats of any player left in the draw on serve. He has won 80% of service points and 96% of his service games. Coming into this event, Gonzalez reached two clay court semi-finals losing to Rafael Nadal in Rome and David Ferrer in Barcelona, he has a 8-2 recent match record and has reached the quarter-finals of the French Open on two previous occasions (2008, 2003). Gonzalez is also known as a clay court specialist, with eight of his 11 career titles coming on the red stuff.

Andy Murray is having his best ever clay court season, having already reached the quarter-finals at this year's French Open for the first time, the Monte Carlo Masters semi-final and the quarter- finals of Madrid. He has played the Chilean twice before, winning in five sets in the US Open in 2006 and losing on indoor carpet in Basel back in 2005.

One of Gonzalez's nicknames is 'Mano de Piedra' or Stone Hand - the same as the boxer Robert Durran. 'When he hit with his right, it was usually a knockout'. If Murray is to win this match he will have to contain what is regarded as the most powerful shot in the game - Gonzalez's forehand. This will be a great match to watch for the contrasting styles of the two players but I will be siding with Gonzalez simply because he has better clay court pedigree.

Selection:
Lay Three Sets @ [2.98]
Back Fernando Gonzalez @ [2.46] to win the match