French Open Betting / Gary Boswell / 06 June 2008 /

Gary Boswell reckons Dinara Safina has the bottle to triumph in tomorrow's French Open Final.But Ivanovic is confident she can go one better than last year

With consecutive wins over Sharapova,Dementieva and Kuznetsova, you could be forgiven for thinking that the 2008 Women's French Open title has Dinara Safina's name on it. A [3.3] shot in the match betting though courtesy of having to face the new world number one Ana Ivanovic who demonstrated her class in the heroic slugfest that was her semi-final against Jankovic. The way she opened up her forehand, having changed to a new racket, to win those last three games and the match was indicative of the Serbian's class. She'll be a tough nut for the less experienced Safina to crack.

I'm not writing the Russian off though. There is a definite sense that this could be her time and there can also be no doubting that she excels on the surface. Arguably that was what turned her ranking on its head in the amazing three games she won to get here. Matched at [210.0] in the Betfair outright win markets when match point down to Sharapova, she has demonstrated her bottle. She did it again against Dementieva and then showed Kuznetsova what kind of mindset is required in the semi-final.

I'm impressed and I like the fact that Safina has a 1-0 head to head over Ivanovic on clay. That was back in 2006 and both have improved a bundle since (and Ivanovic has it at 2-1 on all surfaces) but it was a 6-1 6-4 two set win which can be taken as collateral form on the surface to suggest that [3.3] is a trifle generous.

Ivanovic might exert her undoubted class as she eventually did against Jankovic but I'm not sure that Safina is as much of an outsider as the odds suggest. I'm prepared to bring a bit of the Boz observation into play to bolster the case for the Russian. For me, with Safina, it's a shoulders thing. Safina has the shoulders for clay. She hits the ball consistently hard and can compensate for her slightly inferior court movement and all round inferior class.

Ivanovic is deserving of her new status as the world's best and she certainly does have a serve and forehand game that could blow Safina away on any given day. But last year's final wobbles raise doubts as to whether Ivanovic will cope. That infamous ball toss to the right that caused her to send several serves straight into the geraniums last year could re-surface. You tend to think it won't this time as she is no longer the junior looking up in awe at Henin. But it might. There have been times when she's looked fragile to the hard hitting clay specialist - a la second set against Jankovic - and Safina might just have the guts to outslog her.

I'm expecting a tight one. Maybe a classic. The good bet to me looks like [2.4] on one of the first two sets going to a tiebreak but I also think [6.0] or greater on Safina to win 2-1 is pretty good value in a one off match bet situation.

Remember to track the inplay fluctuations aswell. Safina has been available at fantastic prices - and likewise her opponents as outstanding lays - throughout the tournament and there's every indication that she's going to put up a decent fight in a final where she may well prove the fresher of the two.

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