French Open Betting / Simon Mundie / 30 May 2008 /

Simon Mundie doubts Federer will be winning in Paris this year and reasons include the loss of his aura of yesteryear and the small matter of a certain Rafael Nadal. But is it the beginning of the end for Federer?

Take a cursory glance at any one of the many tennis chatrooms, and the most hotly debated topic is whether Roger Federer is indeed the GOAT- Greatest Of All Time. Apparently it's between him and Pete Sampras- master of all he surveyed in the 90s. But most agree the matter will be resolved just as soon as Federer adds the French open to his Grand Slam title haul to complete the career Grand Slam- something Sampras never really threatened to do.

He's been in the final for the last two years- going down to the man many consider to be the Clay Court GOAT, Rafael Nadal, who is the red-hot favourite on the red stuff of Paris at [1.82]. Federer has certainly been the second best player in the world on clay for a few years, and he's number one seed at Roland Garros again, but this year things are a bit different for the World Champion.

For one, he's not actually been the best player in the world on ANY surface besides clay- that honour falls to Novak Djokovic. The young Serb has won the Australian Open, and the Masters Series titles in Indian Wells and Rome. "The Serbinator" is [8.6] to win in Paris. Federer hasn't yet won a Masters title this year anywhere- his worst start to the year since 2000.

But more importantly, Federer's lost to players it would have been unthinkable him losing to even last year- journeymen like Mardy Fish and Radek Stepanek. Plus, he was 5-1 down in the third set to a certain Raul Ramirez Hidalgo at Monte Carlo, although he did manage to scrape through that one in the end. But his form has been far short of what we would expect from the man who has dominated tennis for four years.

However all that will soon be forgotten if at the end of these two weeks he's holding aloft the French Open trophy, and one look at the market suggests he's still a short second favourite at [3.95] to lift the trophy and he's got a lot of backers. So can he do it? In short- no he can't.

Federer is a man in decline. He isn't moving with the same speed and grace as yesteryear- and that is crucial to success on the clay courts of Roland Garros. When he arrives at the ball a split second late and off balance, his strokes have a habit of breaking down. And it's been pointed out on numerous occasions this year that he is spraying far more errors of both wings than in his pomp. And free points on clay, particularly against the very best, is a recipe for disaster.

And then there's the aura. Federer had 90% of his opponents beaten before he stepped on court- and so often didn't need to produce his best to be sure of leaving court the victor. But the losses he's suffered this year have put paid to that. Now most players face him thinking they've got a great chance of recording a truly famous victory. And once that aura's gone, you're in trouble.

To be fair, his draw could have been worse- he has avoided Nadal and Djokovic until the final. But he does have World no.4 Nikolei Davydenko ([38.0] if you fancy it) in his half, who won Miami this year, beating Nadal in the final. He will be chomping at the bit to see how far he's come against Federer, plus he's shown he can produce at Roland Garros.

Now say Federer does get to the final, and faces Novak Djokovic who will have beaten Nadal, well there will be no stopping the young Serb if he's taken care of Spain's King of clay.

The likelihood if he does reach the final is he will be facing Nadal. And then he doesn't really stand a chance. Federer has beaten Nadal only once on clay, in the Hamburg final of 2007. Now Hamburg is renowned for playing differently to pretty much all other of the big clay court events; It doesn't take spin in the same way- which blunts Rafael Nadal's weapons.

Plus, Federer's win there in 2007 was over three sets. Federer is incapable of performing to the required level over five sets, particularly this year when his level has clearly dropped. Nadal, on the other hand, just gets better and better the longer a clay court battle goes on.

It's claimed Federer has no weaknesses, but on clay against Nadal that's not true. He struggles to handle heavily topspun forehand drives to his backhand wing that get above shoulder height. Nadal knows this and pummels his backhand wing repeatedly until it breaks down, or federer becomes frustrated and goes for winners to early in the rally.

So, if Federer does succeed in reaching a third consecutive French open Final- he's doomed. But first he's got to get there, and to do that he will have to get past a handful of players who will think it just might be their time to beat someone who could well be the GOAT.

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