French Open Betting: Why Nadal is unlikely to emulate Federer in the long-term

French Open Betting / Jack Houghton / 22 May 2009 / Leave a comment

Jack Houghton tells us why despite his superb last year and vast talent, Rafael Nadal will struggle to achieve the same as Federer has by the time they've both packed it in. And whisper it quietly: he may even lose to him in this year's French Open.

A couple of years back, on a mid-winter tour of Europe's premier ski resorts, I swear I met Roger Federer in a Chamonix bar. Admittedly, he was taller than expected, but these widescreen televisions induce dwarfism in the loftiest screen presence. He was carrying a few pounds as well. But this was the off-season. And he appeared more Spanish than Swiss - on account of him mainly speaking Spanish - but still, we knew it was the Fed.

How? Because we got embroiled in an unofficial beat-the-intro duel. For those unfamiliar with the game, it involves correctly guessing a playing song before your opponent. A covers band performed and the Fed and we battled all night. Level-pegging moving into the encore, he recognised and named the Mammas & Pappas' California Dreaming with barely a note played. What can I say? This guy was a natural born winner. We knew it had to be the Fed.

Watching Federer win in Madrid last week, I was reminded of his tenacity and seeming inability to accept any outcome other than victory. The performance was surprising from a tennis player whom - if you were to believe the popular sporting press - was finished winning major tournaments. Yes, we were told that when Federer lost those few crucial points to Nadal at Wimbledon last year, it signalled his end. Nadal was to be the dominant force now. He would be the one to rewrite the record books.

Those who write and talk about sport have short memories, don't they? The same ones who were heaping praise on Federer in 2007 - pondering if anyone would be able to challenge his dominance anytime soon - were the ones writing his obituary a year later and declaring Nadal as the second coming.

You see it in all sports. When John Higgins won the World Snooker Championships in 1998, many spoke of it as signalling a new era in the game: Hendry was gone now; a new force was ascending. Then Hendry won the title back the following year. And whether it's Taylor in darts, Kauto Star in racing or Woods in golf - it seems there always comes a time when people are looking for the successor and can't wait to ship the old legend out for the new.

This predilection has two major shortcomings. First, despite how things might be presented, the talent and desire to win doesn't desert champions overnight. Naturally, age and motivation will slowly dent capabilities; but "slowly" is key here. Second, legends come along rarely.

Nadal might go on to rewrite the record books, but my guess is he will not. This conclusion isn't reached because of any great insight into his tennis capabilities. It's just that sport is regularly presented with emerging talents who are supposed to rewrite record books; and more of them fail than succeed. What's more, Nadal's dominance pivots on a physicality that, I would say, makes him less likely to have the longevity required to even approach the record of Federer.

Going into the French Open then, the prevailing wisdom tells us Nadal is the new dominant force and that Federer is finished. Those supporting Nadal at [1.43] on this basis have other reasons for confidence as well. He is unbeaten at Roland Garros and boasts an 8-2 head-to-head record against Federer on clay.

But here's why he is bad value at that price. Nadal's clay dominance has been built during a period that has seen a paucity of talent in the slow-court game. And the one player who had the ability to challenge him on the surface - Federer - has seemed unwilling, or unable, to adjust his game to suit the demands of clay. But things have changed. Djokovic and Murray now rate as credible slow-court opponents to Nadal, and there was evidence in Madrid that Federer, now fully recovered from his blood disorder, has found a way of beating Nadal on clay.

Federer at [8.4] and Murray at [30.0] are both worthy of small bets to cause an upset in Paris. And backing Nadal to lose a set at [1.26] is an absolute gift. It's very hard to see how he can win this year without being stretched at some point, and the profit from a maximum bet on him losing a set can be used to cover smaller bets on Murray and Federer in the outright market.