French Open Betting / Matthew Walton / 23 May 2008 / Leave a comment

"Magical" Matthew Walton looks at the stats and in particular previous French Open appearances to help us find the winner in the women's draw

There are two main methods of piecing together a bet in the outright market of a tournament.

Once you know the draw (and this fact is a pre-requisite) you can adopt either a 'constructive' or 'destructive' approach to bet selection.

With regards to the men's singles at Roland Garros we will use the 'constructive' argument but here, for the ladies, we're going to highlight a more 'destructive' approach. And by that we mean, decision-making which is driven by a process of elimination. Discounting the possibilities as we go and ending up with the best option for investment. Almost by default.

In other words, it's a case of 'Last Woman Standing'.

The first part of the jigsaw is that of retirements and no-shows. Look at the recent roll of honour for Paris and you see that Justine Henin (2003, 2005, 2006 & 2007), Jennifer Capriati (2001), Anastasia Myskina (2004) and Mary Pierce (2000) are all non-runners this year for one reason or another. Principally retirement.

You can also throw into the mix the likes of Lindsay Davenport, Kim Clijsters and Martina Hingis. None of them won here in the past but all would have featured in calculations if present. Same goes for Daniela Hantuchova, another recent withdrawal.

And of all those, Justine Henin is the one who creates the biggest vacuum at the top of the market. A standing dish at Roland Garros and the one player everybody else would normally have to beat.

So, they're all gone. And we're now left with those who are playing here but have never really cut it in Paris.

The likes of Amelie Mauresmo (just two QF's in 2003 and 2004) and Venus Williams (RU in 2002) jump off the page. Neither could be considered on the upgrade but, then again, neither really did much here even when they were leading contenders.

You could even go on to discuss the one past champion who returns to Paris this year, Serena Williams (winner in 2002). That win aside, no other final appearances at Roland Garros and a schedule which increasingly questions her focus and commitment. Along with her sister, Serena dominated the game for 4 or 5 years but those days are gone. She heads the market at around [4.8] but even with a recent clay win in Charleston that price may put some backers off.

As you can see, the landscape of the women's game, which many of us have become familiar with, has rapidly changed over the last few years. Take all these names out of the reckoning and the market seems wide open.

A look at the betting, therefore, points you towards Maria Sharapova [6.8] who made the SF's last year and is the next best in the betting to Serena Williams. Then you have last year's RU and the conqueror of Sharapova in the 2007 SF's, Ana Ivanovic. The Serbian girl hasn't had a stellar year though and odds of [8.4] may seem cramped. However, seeded No.2 she wouldn't face Sharapova until the final (the two met in the Australian Open final earlier in the year which Sharapova won).

Jelena Jankovic is the next option. A beaten SF-ist last year and she has recently won on clay in Rome. Around the same price as Sharapova at [6.8] she is seeded No.3 and in the other half of the draw as the Russian (but that means being in with Ivanovic and Serena Williams etc).

Then we have Elena Dementieva (RU 2004), Svetlana Kuznetsova (RU 2006) both of whom lack a real top-notch pedigree. Dinara Safina who has an even worse track record in the Slams and there's Anna Chakvetadze who's seeded No.6 and in the top section with Sharapova.

Taking all this into consideration, we can also throw in the recent record of the seeds at Roland Garros. A look back over the last 10 years shows the following record :-

Again, hardly a great cause for optimism. The top seeds don't have it quite as easy as you'd like to think!

Once again we go back to our opening comments. Firstly, take the draw into full consideration. This is your blueprint to work from and the best guide to the Betfair market.

Secondly, cross off all the players whose credentials, price, draw, track record and experience suggest they won't last the course. This 'destructive' method applies well to the women's game, more so after the shock retirement of Justine Henin - the likely favourite and winner.

Put those two factors together and you'll be better prepared for the two weeks of action in Paris.

Who will win? The loss of so many former favourites, the decline of the Williams sisters, the upsurge in Russian, Serbian and generally 'Eastern' tennis. You have to look that way for the most likely winner.

If Sharapova can overcome the hoo-doo of the No.1 seeds then it's probably her best ever chance to land this Slam and set up a possible Grand Slam in 2008 ...

Tags: Ana Ivanovic, French Open betting, Maria Sharapova, women's tennis