French Open Betting / Sean Calvert / 23 May 2009 / Leave a comment

Sean Calvert selects the outsiders who can make a mockery of the odds this week in Roland Garros.

The opening matches of any Slam always causes a few shocks and Roland Garros is certainly no different. This year's draw has presented a number of value punting opportunities and my top five likely first round upsets are as follows...

Julien Benneteau ([3.25]) v Jo Wilfried Tsonga ([1.4])

This battle of the Frenchmen has upset written all over it.

Benneteau has just made the finals in Kitzbuhel after taking advantage of withdrawals and is a more accomplished player on the red dirt than his opponent, whose movement on clay is questionable at best.

Tsonga's over reliance on his massive forehand to get him out of trouble can easily be nullified by any decent clay courter and his career record of seven wins and seven losses on the surface speaks volumes.

Benneteau also owns a 3-1 head-to-head career record over Tsonga and importantly each of those clashes have been played on quicker surfaces more likely to favour Tsonga. One on hard, one on carpet and one on grass.

If Benneteau is able to successfully manoeuvre his opponent around on the fast surfaces, he can land the upset.

Finally, Tsonga has never won a match at Roland Garros. He was comfortably beaten in straights by Andy Roddick on his only appearance here and I don't see that record improving in 2009.


Wayne Odesnik ([6.2]) v Gilles Simon ([1.17])

Anyone backing Simon at odds of around [1.17] should think twice because Odesnik is far from the stereotypical poor American clay courter and Simon is on a woeful run of form.

Odesnik reached the final on clay in Houston this year, defeating the likes of Jurgen Melzer en route and that result is far better than anything that Simon has achieved on clay in 2009.

The American also reached the last 32 here last year on his first appearance at Roland Garros (lost to Djokovic), so it's a surface and tournament he enjoys.

Meanwhile, the world number 7 (how??) has lost seven of his 11 matches on the red dirt this year and of those four wins, three have come against the same player - Fabio Fognini.

The Frenchman has been beaten by Andreas Beck, Mischa Zverev, Sam Querrey, Rainer Schuettler and Robin Soderling amongst others on clay in 2009 and that is shocking for a supposed top ten player.

Throw in the fact that Simon has only ever won one match at Roland Garros (against Vinny Spadea) and you have all the ingredients of a shock in the making.


Simone Bolelli ([2.52]) v Tomas Berdych ([1.55])

Don't be deceived by Berdych's recent win in Munich, which has presumably blinded the layers into making him a short priced favourite in this match.

The Czech had to win final set breakers in three of his five matches there against the likes of Lleyton Hewitt and Jeremy Chardy and he may well still be carrying the leg injury that saw him limp out of Madrid two weeks ago.

Berdych is the last player to dig in and scrap if there's the slightest hint of any sort of ailment and a retirement if things start to go wrong is highly likely.

He has gone past the round of 64 just once in his five attempts at Roland Garros and Bolelli won the pair's last clash in Basel at the end of last year.

The Italian hasn't exactly set the world on fire with his form of late, but he did beat Juan Martin Del Potro here last year on his way to the last 32, which is better than anything Berdych has achieved in this event.


Nicolas Massu ([2.3]) v Daniel Koellerer ([1.7])

The layers make Koellerer favourite for this one, presumably based upon the Austrian's recent challenger win on clay in Rome.

There is a world of difference however between that event and Roland Garros and this will be Koellerer's debut in Paris, while Massu is a veteran of six French Open campaigns.

Koellerer's main ATP Tour form is poor; he has an overall record of eight wins from 20 matches and victories over Diego Junqueira and Thomas Bellucci in front of his home crowd in Austria are nothing to write home about.

Although Massu doesn't play as many matches as he used to on tour, he tends to save himself for the big events and he has reached the last 32 of Roland Garros twice - losing to Roger Federer in a close match on the last of those occasions in 2006.

Both players warmed up for this in Kitzbuhel and both lost to Julien Benneteau; Massu losing out in a 9-7 final set breaker, so current form is closely matched.

Massu's 3-0 head-to-head record over Koellerer and his big match experience should swing this one in his favour and he is the choice for an odds against win here.

Marcos Baghdatis ([4.4]) v Juan Monaco ([1.27])

At first glance this would appear to be a lock for Argentine red dirt specialist Monaco, but I fancy that, if fully fit, Baghdatis will revel in the role of underdog in the city where he spent his formative years at the Mouratoglou Tennis Academy.

Although more at home on the quicker surfaces, the Cypriot reached the last 16 at Roland Garros in 2007, a record that Monaco cannot better and the Argentine will still be haunted by his first round thrashing here last year by Robin Soderling, in which he won just six games.

The overrated Monaco is very likely to trade much higher that his current mark of [1.27].

Other matches where I expect the favourite to trade higher than his initial mark include Andy Murray v Juan Ignacio Chela; Juan Martin Del Potro v Michael Llodra; Nicolas Almagro v Agustin Calleri; Marin Cilic v Jan Hernych and James Blake v Leonardo Mayer.