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French Open Betting: The Betfair Contrarian: Why Nadal won't win the French Open

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It was only a matter of time before the Betfair Contrarian turned his attentions to the French Open. Here he is arguing why clay-court king Rafael Nadal won't be victorious in Paris this year.

There's something truly intimidating about watching Rafael Nadal go about his business on clay. The intense determination in his eyes, the hugeness of his arms and the ease with which he pummels the ball into areas of the court his opponent scarcely even knew existed all combine to make him look unbeatable.

With victories over Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer - his two biggest rivals - in the semi-finals and final in Hamburg, he got his hands on a trophy he'd never previously won, which suggests he's even more unstoppable than ever. Not so. Here's why...

Federer has improved on clay

It was once accepted that Federer would dominate three of the four Grand Slams, but never come close to challenging at Roland Garros. That's no longer the case.

In his first six years at the French Open he reached the quarter-finals just once, but in 2005 he finally made the semis, losing to Nadal in 167 minutes. In 2006 and 2007 he made the final and although he lost both to Nadal, he has pushed him harder each time, lasting 182 minutes in 2006 and 190 in 2007.

Nadal was really rattled in Hamburg

Nadal may have won the Masters event in Hamburg, but Federer showed he can go the distance when they clashed in the final.

It took Nadal 172 minutes to triumph even though it was a best-of-three sets clash.

Other encouraging signs for Federer were that Nadal only won seven points more than him, compared to 17 more in last year's French final, and he hit seven aces to Nadal's three.

Winning in Hamburg doesn't bode well anyway

Nadal's exhausting victories over Djokovic and Federer after going the distance could count for nothing given that only once in the last 20 years has the Hamburg Masters winner then won the French Open (Gustavo Kuerten, 2000).

Last year Federer put all his energy into beating Nadal in Hamburg but ended up losing in the French Open Final. Maybe this year he decided to save his best for the one that matters most.

Djokovic also showed he can match Nadal

Nadal's semi-final victory over Djokovic in Hamburg last weekend was also significant because defeat would have allowed the Australian Open champion to leapfrog him as the second-best player in the world rankings.

Nadal has admitted it is inevitable Djokovic will be ahead by August and though Djokovic has proven stronger in most 2008 tournaments, clay should give Nadal the advantage. Even so, he only won five points more than Djokovic last weekend.

The only difference between the two was that Djokovic failed to convert 15 of his 19 break points. If Djokovic, who continues to progress at a startling rate, can address this weakness he will be able to topple Nadal next time.

The pressure is really on now...

While Nadal's first French Open win in 2005 saw him accepted as the best player in the world on clay, there was still a sense that eventually Federer would topple him. However, having beaten Federer three years in a row and gone unbeaten at Roland Garros there is an overwhelming expectation - and immense pressure - on Nadal to win this year.

Further pressure comes from the duel with Djokovic, with Nadal knowing that one slip-up on clay will cripple Nadal as he would crash to third before the grass season, where the Serb has the advantage.

... and Nadal has shown signs of cracking

The effort is taking its toll on Nadal both physically and mentally. He blamed his early exit in Rome this month on blisters and has lashed out at his schedule for harming his fitness, claiming that competing in three Masters tournaments in four weeks is 'crazy', apparently unaware that it effects anyone who chooses to compete in those tournaments equally.