French Open Betting / Sean Calvert / 22 May 2009 /

Armed with the proceeds from what has been an extremely profitable clay court season thus far, the big one is now upon us and the question this fortnight is how to make money from the Rafa roadshow? writes Sean Calvert.

We all know that Roland Garros is a unique event with it's slow, often damp conditions, which play right into the hands of the man who is trying to make history with an unprecedented fifth consecutive mens' singles title this year.

By losing to Roger Federer in Madrid, Rafael Nadal's clay court prowess and title winning credentials haven't taken as much of a bashing as certain observers would have you believe and there is a lot to be said for simply lumping on the Spaniard at [1.43].

An illustrious history such as that of Roland Garros doesn't get rewritten very often though and perhaps this year it might be wise to look for some profitable back-to-lays, particularly if you haven't got a spare grand or so to risk on Nadal at short odds.

Much to the chagrin of the locals, only one Frenchman (Yannick Noah) has won this in the Open era and despite the strength in depth in French tennis that record is unlikely to be altered in 2009.

That said, there are some Frenchmen who seem to revel in the pressure cooker atmosphere of Roland Garros and one of those is available to back at a tasty looking [1000.00].

Jeremy Chardy reached the fourth round here last year, the highlight of which was a comeback win over David Nalbandian before losing out in three tight sets to a then in-form Nicolas Almagro.

Chardy's clay court form this year has been patchy, but he's the type of personality that gives that bit extra in the big games and he could be worth a punt at the current odds, as would compatriot Gael Monfils [270.00] if he wasn't suffering from yet another injury.

Another who only seems to put it in on the big stage is last year's quarter finalist Ernests Gulbis [1000.00], who after a sensational run to the quarters that was ended by Novak Djokovic, has endured a miserable 2009 thus far.

The 20-year-old Latvian has posted an 8-14 record so far this year and won just one match on clay, but with those ranking points to defend you can be sure he'll be firing on all cylinders in Paris once more.

At the opposite end of the career scale is a former world number three who has found a new lease of life recently and who reached the last 16 in 2008 to complement his semi final showing of 2006 (lost to Nadal) and odds of around [880.00] are in insult to a man of his ability.

Ivan Ljubicic has posted a 14-11 winning mark in 2009, highlighted by quarter final showings on clay in Madrid (lost to Djokovic) and Monaco (lost to Nadal) and the Croatian is certainly worth a back to lay punt at those sort of odds despite his potentially tough opener against Juan Carlos Ferrero.

Providing he recovers from an ankle injury in time to take his place in the field, Fernando Gonzalez is fantastic value at around [250.00].

The Chilean has been carefully managed this year and only participated in seven events, posting an impressive 17-5 winning mark in the process.

Gonzalez has only played three clay events in 2009, winning one and reaching the semi-finals in the other two and that sort of form is the best you will find at the big prices.

My tip also did well at Roland Garros last year, reaching the quarters and taking the first set off Federer before losing out on four, so the court form is there too.

Gonzo also has the best of the draw, with only the likes of Gilles Simon [430.00], Marin Cilic [1000.00], Marat Safin [1000.00] and Radek Stepanek [1000.00] barring his progress. Andy Murray [32.0] is there too but he is very beatable at Roland Garros. The Chilean is well worth an investment at that price for my money.

Talking of Federer, the Swiss maestro is my final back to lay tip and the tactic is a very simple one.

It's the same principle as in Madrid a couple of weeks ago - place a sizable wager on Fed at his current price of around [8.4] and you're safe in the knowledge that at worst he'll be around [4.5] should he meet Nadal in the final.

Of course, should the unimaginable happen and Nadal doesn't make the final - even better! An interesting fact for Federer backers is that the great Andre Agassi won the French Open and with it the clean sweep of majors in his 11th attempt, which it also is for the Swiss in 2009.

Players to avoid being tempted by large odds include the likes of perceived clay court specialists such as Tommy Robredo [560.00], Nicolas Almagro [500.00], Fernando Verdasco [60.0] and Juan Monaco [500.00].

Robredo has only reached the quarters three times from seven starts and was thrashed in straights by Radek Stepanek last year. That's as good as it will ever get for Robredo.

Almagro is in woeful form on this year's European clay court swing and prior to last year's run to the Roland Garros quarters, he had never made it past the last 64 in Paris. He won't this year either.

Verdasco's best effort here is reaching the last 16 and although he might possibly better that this year, he won't make it past the quarters at best on this slow surface.

It's a similar story for Monaco, who has performed reasonably well on the European clay court swing so far this year. His best effort has been the last 16 in 2007 and he was hammered in straights by Robin Soderling in the first round last year. Monaco lacks the quality to get anywhere near the title here.

Djokovic has avoided Nadal in the draw and will fancy his chances in Juan Martin Del Potro's quarter, but I can see the Serbian tiring before the semis with Federer taking advantage.

So, were all set for another Federer v Nadal final at Roland Garros, while Gonzalez is the best of the outsiders, but watch out for the back to lay value. It could come in handy should anything happen to Nadal and the Spaniard does have David Ferrer [270.00] and Nikolay Davydenko [210.00] or Stanislas Wawrinka [420.00] to get past early on.

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