French Open Betting Men's Final: Federer v Soderling

French Open Betting / Barry Millns / 06 June 2009 / 1 Comments

It's been a fairytale tournament so far for Robin Soderling with a win over Rafael Nadal and his first-ever Grand Slam final place booked. But can the Swede finish off the job or will Federer's experience give him the upper hand, asks Barry Millns.

So hands up who picked Robin Soderling before the start of the French Open to make it to the final? I bet Roger Federer didn't but now he must be pinching himself that the un-fancied Swede, who did him such a favour by knocking out Rafael Nadal, is all that still stands between him and sporting immortality.

Yet beware the threat of the Viking marauder, who has cut such a spectacular swathe through the men's draw. Soderling, with those piercing blue wolf-like eyes, has hunted down his prey round by round in sensational fashion.

The previously volatile Swede always had a big game at his disposal but over the past fortnight he has finally shown that he now has the strength of mind to make the most of it. His coach of the past few months, Magnus Norman, the last Swede to reach the final in 2000, must take huge credit for that calmer maturity.

"Before starting work with Robin," said Norman, "we looked into what he needed to work on. His mental attitude was an obvious priority. So we talked a lot, discussed things. Before, he was like a teenager on court: now he's a man. He became a great warrior with a cool head. That's the thing I'm most proud of."

The tale of the tape through their first six matches is: Soderling played 22 sets, 315 winners (including 52 aces), 242 unforced errors, 31 break point conversions out of 75, 14 breaks against, 16 hours 33 minutes on court. Federer played 24 sets, 319 winners (including 64 aces), 190 unforced errors, 30 break point conversions out of 70, 15 breaks against, 16 hours 40 minutes on court.

Yet how will they cope come the intense pressures of Sunday's showpiece? Soderling will play his first ever grand slam final against a man he has never beaten in nine attempts and taken only one set off, four years ago. Federer, runner-up for the past three years at Roland Garros, will be playing in his 19th grand slam final knowing that this is his best and perhaps his last chance of becoming only the sixth man ever to win all four majors (aside from trying to equal Pete Sampras' record haul of 14)!

The key, mentally, is about staying in the present; not getting carried away if they go ahead and not panicking if they have fallen behind, as we witnessed them both do so impressively in their respective semi-finals.

Tactically I expect Soderling to continue hammering the ball deep and wide, side to side with that huge forehand behind his big serve, to stay as aggressive as he has throughout the championships and to try and return as well as he has also done in key moments during the fortnight. He is undoubtedly in the form of his life while Federer has struggled to produce his very best and yet always found the way to win.

While Federer obviously needs his serve and forehand to fire well too, I expect to see the world No.2 attempt to blunt the barrage by mixing things up. This should include some serve and volley, varying the pace, using plenty of slice and drawing Soderling away from his comfort zone on the baseline towards the net with some deft drop shots, which proved so crucial in overcoming Juan Martin Del Potro.

Federer is currently trading as the [1.28] clear favourite, while Soderling is available at [4.5]. Bearing in mind that their previous meetings have included seven tiebreaks, that Soderling has already played seven this tournament and Federer five, the Tie-Break Played? market has Yes as the favourite at [1.71] and No at [2.2].

Soderling has won five out of the six opening sets he has played so far, including the last three against Nadal, Nikolay Davydenko and Gonzalez, while Federer has never had an easy first set and lost three of his last four. So the Set 01 Winner market is definitely worth considering with Soderling currently trading at [3.25] compared to Federer's [1.42].

There are, as ever, plenty of other markets to choose from and while my head and heart ultimately tip Federer to achieve his Holy Grail, after what Soderling has kept doing since he knocked out the world No.1, I can also envisage the Big Bad Wolf ruining the Swiss fairytale finish. It will be riveting either way.

Comments (1)

1. FloridaTao | 06 June 2009

   I believe Robin Soderling will win the title on Sunday, in 4 sets.

   Not that Federer cannot win it, he certainly has a strong chance. But Soderling is playing the best tennis of his life by a long shot, swinging away and hitting the spots with nothing to lose. And Federer is not playing his best, by a long shot, and is really feeling the pressure.

   On top of that, Federer has played much more tennis than Soderling, and somewhere there is bound to be fatigue.

   The only thing Federer has on his side is that he has much more experience in dealing with big matches in big occasions. That may pull him through. But otherwise, given that he's played a lot of tennis to get here, and is not playing his best on top of that...the edge goes to Soderling in 4 sets.