French Open Betting: Massive-price Sharapova sends warning to opponents

French Open Betting / Gary Boswell / 30 May 2009 / Leave a Comment

As week two gets into gear at Roland Garros, The Boz wonders if Maria Sharapova can be a [500.00] winner of the slam she has never won.

Only one player has consistently matched the Williams sisters for their combination of quality tennis and mental resilience in grand slams over the past five years and her name is Maria Sharapova.

Matched at [500.0] on the Betfair outrights market before the tournament began, she has been a semi-finalist and quarter finalist at Roland Garros but it remains the one grand slam she's never won and after the impressive second round victory over compatriot Nadia Petrova, the warning bells have been sent round all the other competitors. Shara's new shoulder is holding up and the woman who won three major titles before the age of 22 suddenly looks a massive price at [27.0] with Venus already eliminated from her part of the draw.

She meets Agnes Szavay [50.0] or my pre-tournament back to lay Dominika Cibulkova (now down to [80.0]) in the quarters and you'd have to fancy her to get past that on the form she showed against Petrova and also against Shvedova where that 'find a way to win' mentality that marks out all champions was very much in evidence. Her detractors say that the pregnant duck-like walk is not suited to clay, that at 22-years-old the Kournikova factor is already played out and that these days she resembles more of a moustachioed Hilda Odgen than a Britney Spears!

I wouldn't know about that. To me she has always been the fiercest of competitors with an intimidating stare that could bore through titanium and of course she's not quite the 'sonic boom' grunter that Michelle Larcher de Brito has brought to the circuit but she is an intimidating vocal presence. And she knows how to win the big matches. It's incredible to think that she is younger than world number one and new [2.86] favourite Dinara Safina and it's not hard to work out where the value lies as prices tend to continue being related to world rankings. Sharapova currently stands at 102.

The Sharapova quarter of the draw looks the one to concentrate on. With Cibulkova already covered on the back to lay, it is probably now time to come out on her as she is 0-3 with Szavay and 0-2 with Sharapova so I'll be surpised if she makes quarters.

Elsewhere, I'm still keen to lay Safina at the price despite her obvious form and the loss of just four games in six sets so far. The big test is still to come and Ana Ivanovic is preferred at [13.5]. She looked particularly impressive against Benesova in round three where the unplayable forehand that won her the title last year seemed to be back to its best. Her next game is against our back to lay prospect, Viktoria Azarenka - now priced at [22.0] - which is a tough call.

I'm tempted to include the defending champion as cover to give us another sure player in the quarters rather than trying to lay the Belarussian back now. Azaraenka's defeat of Suarez-Navarro was impressive and the teenager is the definite young improver profile that always excels in the French.

There are a couple of other sharks lurking in the water of the second week's draw. Svetlana Kuznetsova [7.4] is in form but I'm always prepared to oppose her, especially on clay. Dementieva's conqueror Samantha Stosur [100.0] less so and she looks a big price given that she has a fourth round game she can win. Her place in the quarters looks assured. And of course there's still Serena who is as low as [7.6] now. If you already bet her at bigger odds, I'd be comfortable laying her back because clay simply isn't her and she is far from her best.

To my mind, the woman who looks hungriest and has the proven form in slams is Maria Sharapova. If you think she can prevail on clay, she has to be covered at the price and I'll be amazed now if she doesn't get as far as the semis.