French Open Betting: Go with the clay-court specialist in the women's draw

French Open Betting / Gary Boswell / 21 May 2009 / Leave a Comment

Gary Boswell says goodbye to football betting for the next few months and focuses on the ever-dramatic and unpredicatble discipline of women's tennis as he goes in search of the French Open value.

When do you last remember going into a Women's Grand Slam Tennis event with the first two in the betting both being Grand Slam virgins? A similar incredulity about the question - when was the winner of back-to-back Grand Slams last quoted at [9.4] to make it three in a row!

Serena's failure to make favourite for Roland Garros is of course based on the fact that she has a distinctly poorer record on the surface, that she has lost three consecutive games in the run up for only the second time in her career ...and also because The Boz keeps saying that she's past her best!

That assertion seriously came back to bite my pocket in 2008 and carried on into the Australian at the start of this year. I'm enough of a man to take the statement back and whilst it seems there are those that agree with me and that her fall from the throne will come sooner rather than later, I can't help thinking that [9.4] about the winner of the last two slams is one outrageous price.

Balance it against the [5.1] offered on Dinara Safina, whose rise from 15 to world ranked number one in the space of 18 months cannot be denied - and who has made three "Major" finals in the space of 12 months, if you count Beijing. She has lost them all, however, which is a worry to me when thinking about taking that kind of price. It was the way she boiled like a beetroot in the Beijing final and wilted like a damp lettuce in Melbourne that continues to suggest to me that there are still mental or hormonal issues for Safina to sort out before she gets herself in the hallowed position of being a Grand Slam winner.

I speak only as an observer of course and with no expert physiological knowledge about sportswomen at the top level but I do state only that the way the greats - the Steffi Grafs, the Margaret Courts, The Billie Jeans and Martinas handle the big pressure occasions bears no relation whatsoever to the current maelstrom that still seems to course through Safina's blood.

She's better than she was of course and arguably the 'totally chucking in the towel' syndrome that does dog the women's game - and is still the aspect most at fault for causing some of the 'nearly brigade' to be just that - is now absent in Safina. No more 0-6 and bending the racquet head but still something going on to my eyes that makes me doubt whether she is ready yet to take her first big title. With the upcurve she's on, she could win but I'd want at least [8.0] to bet on it. That's my take.

The other assertion is that there's a whole host of equally talented youngsters around without quite the experience that Safina now boasts but at monstrous odds, offering much greater value and an excellent case for constructing a BACK to LAY portfolio in the outrights for the upcoming French Open. Our own Anne Keothavong (whilst not exactly young in the chronological sense) is in the bracket at [610.0] but the four I've chosen from my table above are Dominika Cibulkova ([160.0]), the fast rising Belarussian Viktoria Azarenka ([16.0]), the German Sabine Lisicki ([48.0]) and my personal favourite, the Spaniard Carla Suarez-Navarro ([150.0]).

The latter is a monstrous price if you consider the talent and liking for the surface she showed as a qualifier last year in reaching the quarter-finals - a form score she endorsed with her victory over Venus in Australia. I was watching closely that day and the 'Aranxta' factor is very marked in the way she compensates for lack of physical stature by her bustling court coverage. It's something we haven't seen much of with success during the bam-bam era of the Williams sisters - an era to which Safina and the fast improving Alisa Kleybanova also subscribe - but I'm hopeful that Suarez-Navarro will usher in a new era of more watchable women's tennis based on speed and finesse rather than pure muscular strength.

She will need the latter just to stay on the court and the shoulders and 'sprinter's thighs' in evidence in Melbourne were encouragement that she has been spending some time in the gym.
After the Australian, her price melted to [33.0] for this event but form since has been poorish despite a first WTA circuit final in Marbella where she lost in three sets to Jelena Jankovic. I've seen some [250.0] around for Roland Garros which, if you can get it again, I would seriously recommend. There are some injury doubts that might explain recent form but no sign of hormonal or temperament inconsistencies in the Spaniard's game. She has a seriously powerful backhand that blew Venus away and she is my BACK to LAY for the next five years in the French - on a surface she clearly relishes- and a general tip for the top.

BOZ's BEST BET:

Back to lay Carla Suarez Navarro at [150.0] or greater in the French Open outrights