French Open Betting / Simon Mundie / 04 June 2009 / Leave a comment

As Rafael Nadal crashed out to Robin Soderling in dramatic circumstances, Roger Federer licked his lips at the prospect of finally winning in Paris. But will he go all the way after all, asks Simon Mundie.

The door is now wide open for Roger Federer to win the one remaining grand Slam title to have eluded him during his incredible career. With four-time defending champion Rafael Nadal out of the way, along with Novak Djokjovic and Andy Murray, Federer can't believe his luck at the moment. At the tournament's outset he was realistically third favourite, and most people agreed his best days were behind him, certainly on clay. Yet here we are, with Federer just two matches away from equalling Pete Sampras' record of 14 Grand Slam titles, and completing the career Grand Slam. For many, that would be confirmation that the majestic Swiss is indeed the greatest of all time.

If Federer does go on and win the title (he's[1.81]), it would have the same air of destiny about it as Andre Agassi's 1999 Roland Garros win to complete his career slam. That year, Agassi only decided to enter the tournament at the last minute, and had to come back from two sets down in the final against Andrei Medvedev to return to the Grand Slam winner's circle after a four year absence during which his ranking had plummeted out of the top 100.

In Federer's case, his best years were between 2005 and 2007, when he was just one match from completing a calendar Grand Slam each year. However, with each passing season, Nadal got better as Federer's level dropped, and there were question marks as to whether Federer would again win a major anywhere, let alone on the clay of Paris where the Spaniard took him apart in last year's final in brutal fashion. While the question marks around Federer and his game have not yet been entirely lifted, you would have to be a brave man to bet against him being acclaimed champion come Sunday evening. Most tennis fans would welcome the achievement.

Federer's claim to be greatest of all time has been questioned in recent years by his inability to dominate Nadal. Sampras had no such problem during his era, but tennis is a game of match ups and simply put, Nadal's game is tailor-made to cause Federer problems. But let's consider the rest of the evidence. Federer has reached at least the last four of every single Grand Slam tournament since losing in Paris to Gustavo Kuerten in 2004, a total of twenty consecutive semi-finals. Of those twenty, he's only failed to go on and reach the final on three occasions, winning the title thirteen times from seventeen finals. He has won Wimbledon and the US Open five times in a row, four times in the same season. The Swiss maestro also holds the record for the most consecutive weeks ranked as the world's number one.

So could anything come between Federer and his date with destiny? Well, consider this statistic: prior to his match with Gael Monfils, his lifetime record against the then five remaining men in the draw was 38 wins against just 1 loss. That solitary defeat came against Fernando Gonzalez at the tennis Masters Cup in 2007, and should probably not be taken too seriously, bearing in mind he's beaten the Chilean in all twelve of their other meetings.

Now there are only three men left who can stop the Fed-Express: Robin Soderling ([7.0] to win the title), Fernando Gonzalez ([6.4]) and Juan martin Del Potro ([6.4]). Soderling's form has been the most remarkable, bulldozing Rafael Nadal in four sets before annihilating Davydenko, no slouch on clay, in their quarterfinal. Soderling next faces Gonzalez who has also been in outstanding form in what will surely be one of the hardest hitting encounters ever seen on a tennis court. On form alone, Soderling should edge it and if he were to keep it up he could blow Federer away too. However, the history books are littered with players who have blitzed their way to a Grand Slam finals unexpectedly, before realising what they had achieved and suffering stage fright in the tournament decider. Martin Verkerk anyone?

If Gonzalez reaches the final, he at least has the advantage of having been in that situation before. But does he have that extra bit of quality to become a Grand Slam Champion? His backhand is a slight weakness, and while Murray was unable to expose it, Federer would surely find a way.

So that leaves Juan Martin Del Potro- the world number five who is threatening to turn the 'Big Four' into the 'Big Five'. He hits the ball superbly off both wings, has immense wingspan and moves well for such a big man, but as already highlighted, tennis is a game of match ups, and the fact that he hits a relatively flat ball plays into Federer's hands.

For vindication of this, go back to this year's Australian Open quarter final when Federer destroyed the Argentine 6-2, 6-0, 6-0 in one of the most commanding performances ever seen at that stage of a major tournament. That match will be in the back of Del Potro's mind and if he gets off to a bad start, the match could be over before it's begun. With all that in mind, it would take a brave man to tip anyone except Federer to become the next French Open Champion- in fact he represents immense value even at [1.8] - he is simply too classy to miss his date with destiny.