French Open Betting / Gary Boswell / 26 May 2008 / Leave a comment

Gary Boswell has been glued to the TV as most of the favourites in the women's draw have negotiated their way through to the second round. Here's why Sharapova and Serena Williams are worth taking on and why the Serbian duo are worth having on your side.

The vacuum in the market created by 'the queen of clay' Justine Henin's retirement on the very eve of the French Open has led most people to assume that the ultimate winner of the Women's title in 2008 is very hard to call. The title is up for grabs and we could well see a new name on the trophy.

Important therefore to keep a close eye in the early rounds on those two big S ladies - Serena and Sharapova - as questions marks about both mean we have a potential opportunity for Laying the favs and creating strong positions in the outright markets.

Both Serena and Maria pulled out of games in the latter stages of the Italian Open as a precautionary measure leading into this tournament. Sharapova has consistently suffered a recurrence of her shoulder injury that undoubtedly affects her ability to serve at the level required to make her game dominant. I've watched her struggle before when the shoulder isn't working properly and the retirement in Italy has to be a concern for backers who will already be aware that this is the Grand Slam the 21 year old has so far been unable to win.

Three wins, one final and five semi finals at the other three grand slams and only one semi final and two quarter finals at Roland Garros clearly points to that anti-clay trend that affects certain great players and dominates assessment of possible winners at this event.

There is a definite sense though that Sharapova is good enough to exert class over surface and win this year if she is fully fit. Her first round game against 103 rated Evgeniya Rodina has been delayed until Tuesday giving her an extra day of rest but you can't help but speculate on her layability with that doubt hanging over her and the generally perceived vulnerability on clay.

Number five seed Serena remains the market favourite and the layers' idea of the main danger despite her recurring back injury and the fact that at 27, the younger Williams sister is surely past her prime. 8 Grand Slam wins in her career makes her the senior player though in Henin's absence and the 6-2 6-1 dismissal of 61 rated Ashley Harkleroad in the first round suggested that there is nothing seriously wrong with her game at the moment. She was hitting the ball sweetly and hard and her movement about the court - often the big issue when Serena is below her best - was not noticeably impaired.

The Boz has his doubts though whether she can be expected to last the pace once the more dangerous and hard hitting opposition is on the other side of the net and I'm fairly strong on the idea that a new name is coming to the Trophy this year.

If you doubt whether Sharapova can possibly win on clay, that brings number two seed Ana Ivanovic and number three seed Jelena Jankovic firmly into the equation.

Losing finalist last year and likewise in the first slam of 08 in Australia, Ivanovic is undoubtedly the class act waiting in the wings. Her first round win over 52 rated Sofia Arvidsson - who walloped Ivanovic in straight sets in their only previous meeting back in 2003 - was workmanlike rather than spectacular and you got the distinct impression that the 6-2 7-5 score flattered the Scandanavian who won't be beating Ivanovic in straight sets ever again!

Ivanovic's low groundshot game does seem ideally suited to the surface and last year's capitulation in the final against Henin was presumably down to the mental growth that she is going through. Which is why to some extent I favour Jankovic this year. Her mindset looks more robust to me and her brilliant battle against Bartoli at Wimbledon in 2007 struck me as the sort of preparation required to go on and win a grand slam herself once on her favoured surface.

She has a less impressive overall record than Ivanovic with only three grand slam semi-finals on the CV at the moment and there is a possibility that her game and personality will always be more suited to doubles play. Ivanovic undoubtedly looks the classier of the two with her silky backhand and overall court mobility but I'm still rowing in with the older Serbian whose first round dismissal of 86 rated Monica Niculescu 7-6 6-2 was a solid workout and every bit as impressive as one would hope. The current Betfair price of [6.0] on the outrights strikes me as reasonable value in an open year.

In case you need to be reminded of the volatility of women's tennis and the importance of hedging inplay, consider The Boz's highlighted first round possible upset between Agnes Szavay and Ayumi Morita. The Japanese teenage sensation was matched at [70.0] after losing the first set 6-1 whilst the Hungarian seed was laid at [1.01] to the tune of £13,581. After levelling and taking a 3-0 lead in the third, Morita was laid at [1.4] whilst Szavay's price drifted out to [2.8]. You won't need a calculator to work out your inplay profits if you followed my point towards the fact that Szavay was not going to get an easy ride!

Tags: French Open betting, Maria Sharapova, tennis betting