French Open Betting / Matthew Walton / 23 May 2008 / Leave a Comment

"Magical" Matthew Walton considers all the different factors that will play a part in winning the men's draw and unsuprisingly Nadal seems to have the lot

In our preview of the women's singles at the French Open we discussed how outright tournament betting can be attacked from two angles - 'constructive' and 'destructive'.

As for the women we chose to illustrate a destructive method of betting. In short, stripping away the dead wood from the draw and being left with just the live contenders - which, in the case of the women, seemed relatively few.

Turning to the men we'll use a different strategy. Instead of knocking down the competitors we'll build them up. See who's got the most to offer and the best chance of success after two weeks of action in Paris.

Starting off with a track record in the Slams and the options look fairly limited. With the dominance of Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal over the past few years (they've won 14 of last 17 Slams) there is little variety at the top of the men's game.

Thankfully, Novak Djokovic won in Australia earlier this year but take these three out of the equation and who is number four on the list? Davydenko, Ferrer or Nalbandian? These guys, as you can see by their prices, aren't considered real competition trading at upwards of [40.0], [50.0] even [80.0].

Main contenders - Federer, Nadal & Djokovic

If we look at clay court pedigree. The list probably grows shorter as Djokovic has yet to get the years under his belt on tour to fully cement his credentials on dirt. That recent win in Rome certainly improves his standing but we've yet to see enough of him on the surface to make a fully informed judgement.

Main contenders - Federer & Nadal

In terms of sheer clay court ability Nadal is hard to see beyond as his win/loss record (148-14 or 91%) is truly amazing and his record in clay finals (15-1) is similarly impressive. And, please note, he's just taken out Djokovic and Federer back-to-back to win in Hamburg.

Next in line of true clay performers are Monaco, Nalbandian, Ferrer, Robredo, Gonzalez, Almagro and maybe Canas. Do these guys really have a chance? Not on recent evidence. They can, and do, win on the regular tour but few have been able to win at a higher grade.

Main contender - Nadal

You could even add to this list the youngblood from recent Paris events. By this we mean the Boy's Singles. Winners over the years have included such talents as Fernando Gonzalez (1998), Guillermo Coria (1999), Paul-Henri Mathieu (2000), Richard Gasquet (2002), Stanislas Wawrinka (2003) and Marin Cilic (2005). Trouble is with these guys, the older ones have maybe had their chance and with regards to Gasquet, Wawrinka and Cilic their time might still be come ... but not this year.

Then there's the previous records of players who have won in Paris. Whilst Kuerten came from nowhere in 1997 to win the title (his first tour title) the likes of Nadal, Ferrero (2003), Costa (2002), Moya (1998) and Muster (1995) had all won at least one big clay event prior to winning in Paris. Also players such as Gaudio (2004), Agassi (1999), Kafelnikov (1996) were all proven tour winners.

The point being, this isn't really an event associated with first time success. The winner of a Grand Slam on clay tends to be a solid all-round player.

Main contender - Federer, Nadal, Djokovic & Davydenko

If we wish to adopt a statistical approach we can look to recent history at Roland Garros as our guide :-

Similar to the women's game, this tournament hasn't been the happiest of hunting grounds for the No.1 seed. Last winner, as top seed, was Gustavo Kuerten back in 2001. The trends are for a highly ranked player to win, not necessarily the top player.

Main contender - Nadal & Djokovic

Throw in the typical player who wins at Roland Garros - i.e. not a big server but a good returner - you're looking at players who are top of the rankings for breaking serve.

Main contenders - Davydenko, Nadal, Djokovic, Ferrer & Blake.

Not, it has to be said, the likes of Roddick, Ljubicic, Karlovic, Ancic, Querrey, Tsonga, Soderling etc.

As you can see, piecing together the building blocks of form, and seeing whose pile is the highest, draws upon a number of different facets. We could, if we wished, add many more as well.

Being on clay the French Open, like the grass of Wimbledon, is a much more exclusive surface. Fewer players can win on clay (or grass) than hard courts. As such we see more open events at the Australian and US Opens.

Take the separate aspects of Grand Slam pedigree, Masters Series success, clay court record, tournament seeding, style of play (we could add age, nationality and recent tour form as well if we wish) and most roads do tend to lead to Rafael Nadal.

Then again, at [1.78], that's a pretty obvious call. Maybe so.

The fact still remains that as a three time defending champion, who has just won three big clay events in Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Hamburg (the last of which saw him defeat both his main rivals) the form book can only point to him winning again. His health and physical well-being are the only concerns.

Naturally, some backers will vote with their feet and choose to swerve the Majorcan. At the price, this is probably a fair call.

Aside from Nadal it is a very, very open event. The top half of the draw, including Federer, is no gimme for the world No.1 and the astute backer could do worse than take some of the fancy Betfair prices about David Ferrer, Nikolay Davydenko et al and maybe even 'lay off' a bit further down the line.

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