French Open Betting / Simon Mundie / 01 June 2009 /

Simon Mundie reflects on the shock of Nadal's exit and ponders what it could mean for the remaining men.

One of the biggest upsets in men's tennis history. Describing four-time defending Champion Rafael Nadal's four set defeat at the hands of Robin Soderling in such dramatic terms is no understatement. Nadal had never previously lost a match at Roland Garros and was considered to be a virtual shoo-in for the title; the Spaniard was on a 31-match winning streak, and had already collected the clay court titles at Monte Carlo, Rome and Barcelona. Of course his phenomenal run was going to come to an end sooner or later, but no one could have realistically foreseen that it would come at the hands of the 23rd seed from Sweden.

It's difficult to pinpoint exactly why Nadal lost but, despite a few flashes of his imperious best, not least in dismantling Lleyton Hewitt in the third round, he hadn't looked on top form right from his first match, where he laboured to victory over Brazil's Marcos Daniel.

That day his backhand had looked shaky, and he was struggling to maintain a decent length off the ground. So he hadn't been at his peerless best this week, and part of that could stem from the comprehensive defeat he suffered at the hands of his predecessor as world number one Roger Federer in the final of the Madrid Masters prior to the start of the Open.

That day Federer refused to allow Nadal to draw him into interminable baseline duels, instead mixing up his play and keeping the Spaniard out of his comfort zone. The match was played at altitude, and he had been suffering fatigue after the draining semi-final he played against Djokovic the previous day, but still Federer showed that as long as Nadal isn't allowed to simply dictate play, he was beatable.

So Nadal is gone, the draw is now wide open and we are assured of having a new French Open Champion. But who is it likely to benefit most? The first name that naturally springs to mind is Federer ([2.2] to win the title), who has the perfect opportunity to win the one Grand Slam title to have eluded his thus far, which would equal Pete Sampras' haul of 14 Grand Slam titles and once more allow him to lay claim to being the greatest player of all time.

However, it will be interesting to see how Federer reacts to the loss. In his matches until this point, Federer has clearly had one eye on a possible final showdown with Nadal, as he's been mixing up his play more than in previous years, mindful that this would be his best chance of beating the Spaniard. That could explain why he has laboured to victory on more than one occasion, not least against Juan Acasuso who was a double break up in the third set having split the first two sets before Federer clawed himself back into the match. Now Nadal has gone, does Federer carry on playing in the same way, or does he revert to the type of bread and butter tennis that has carries him to the last the French Open finals without too many problems?

Whatever Federer decides to do, his draw looks favourable as the player who looked the second best clay court player this season until the French Open and who Federer should have faced in the semi-finals, Novak Djokovic, has also gone out, leaving a relatively straightforward passage to the final. He should certainly take care of Tommy Haas ([210.0] to win the tournament) and then Gael Monfils [40.0] or Andy Roddick [75.0] to reach the semi-finals where he will likely face Juan Martin Del Potro [13.5], who he has dominated in their previous encounters. Things are looking rosy for the Swiss maestro.

In the other half of the draw, it's now wide open. Andy Murray stated before the tournament began that he would consider a run deep into the second week a resounding success, but after playing so will in beating Marin Cilic, he must now be thinking the tournament is there to be won. He next faces Fernando Gonzalez [13.0] who has been in scintillating form, and who many experts feel could start as favourite against Murray.

However, Murray has a superb ability for exploiting his opponent's weaknesses, and Gonzalez's backhand can break down under pressure, so if Murray can execute his game plan he should come through. That leaves either Nikolay Davydenko [10.5] or Robin Soderling [29.0] from the other quarter-final in his section. Davydenko has two French open semi-finals on his resume, and Soderling will struggle to play as well as he did against Nadal with the level of expectation now that much higher, so Davydenko would be where the smart money goes in that match.

If Murray can beat Gonzalez, he knows he has what it takes to beat both Davydenko and Soderling, which means a final berth is a distinct possibility. In all likelihood he would face Federer, against whom he now holds a commanding head-to-head record, although they have never played on clay. A Murray versus Federer final would be a fascinating prospect, but the fact remains this has been a tournament of almost unprecedented shocks. Federer may be able to smell immortality and Murray an unlikely first step on the road to greatness, but for the first time since the tournament began, every player left in the draw must be feeling they have a genuine chance to be crowned French Open Champion. One thing is for sure however: it's going to be a fascinating second week.

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