Tennis ATP Tour Finals Betting: Why Andy Murray can see off Roger Federer

Events / Ben Caudell / 24 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

"Murray’s best results have come on indoor courts and I believe the young Brit will want to prove that he is capable once again of beating Federer."

With a good record against the world number one and greater mental toughness, Andy Murray should be backed to defeat Roger Federer at the O2 Arena on Tuesday night, says Ben Caudell.

Roger Federer (SWI) v Andy Murray (GBR)

The lucky 16,000 odd thousand fans who managed to get a ticket for Tuesday evening's match will be in for a treat. They will have the privilege of watching number one seed and multi-Grand Slam winner Roger Federer take on home favourite Andy Murray in a match that guarantees the winner a place in the semi-finals.

These two heavy-weights will be pulling all the punches in what I predict will be a close fought three setter with the eventual winner being the one who is stronger mentally and less likely to crack when the end is near. Both players possess strong mental toughness but there have been signs recently that Federer's armoury isn't as strong as it should be. Against Fernando Verdasco on Sunday night he was outplayed for much of the first and second sets. It was Verdasco's inability to close out matches that saw Federer eventually take the match 6-1 in the third.

The head-to-head record between the pair reads 6-3 in Murray's favour. Surprisingly, all nine matches have been played on a hard court surface and only four of the nine have been won in straight sets. Some of Murray's best results have come on indoor courts and I believe the young Brit will want to prove that he is capable once again of beating the best player to ever grace the tennis world. Murray is playing at home so will have the advantage of the crowd's support, There is less pressure on Murray at this event as opposed to the ridiculous Wimbledon propaganda that can have more of an adverse effect than a positive one.

This match is a must-watch; expect gritty, gutsy performances from both players. The average amount of games played in a match between these two is 27; therefore there is definitely value in backing Over 24.5 Games.

Selection: Back Andy Murray @ [2.04] to win match
Back Over 24.5 Games @ [1.94]