Qatar Total Open Betting: The portfolio approach

Events / Gary Boswell / 13 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Sabine Lisicki has the power game to win any tournament

"I prefer the German Sabine Lisicki, who has a plus head to head against Wozniacki and is thus much better winner market value at around 41.0."

Working out who is going to win each quarter is half of the way to working out how to make a profit on the winner market of this event. Gary Boswell separates the value back-to-lays from the poor value bets. The latter of which include Victoria Azarenka...

The thing I really like about playing the portfolio approach to tennis winner markets is the prior knowledge you have of the entire draw for the event. This allows a serious filtration of the variables if, like me, you put huge store on past head-to-head scores in tennis match ups. You can actually do a virtual play out of the tournament before it takes place and the accuracy this allows in identifying or shortlisting the likely eventual winner is to be noted. Especially if you watch a bit of tennis and you know your Zakopalovas from your Zvonarevas.

The 2012 Qatar Total Open starting on Monday February 13th is a perfect tournament for putting this approach into practice. 56 women in the main draw once the qualifiers are complete and a plottable draw already on the website allowing all the top seeds a bye through the first round.

Sixteen spots in each quarter and a strong turnout for the $2 million purse including both recent slam winners Victoria Azarenka and Samantha Stosur. As the new order starts to assert in women's tennis, only Petra Kvitova is absent from the top flight and a tremendous tournament is in prospect and a terrific betting heat to boot. I've done my plotting of the likely outcomes and here is my quarter by quarter portfolio betting strategy for the event:

First Quarter: Dominated by the top seeds Victoria Azarenka and Francesca Schiavone, who I track to meet in the quarter final. Schiavone has a 1-0 head to head on the hard surface achieved in the 2009 US Open Slam event making it reliable form. Her winner market price of [55.0] therefore makes her a much better bet than Australian Open winner Azarenka, who puts her new world number one status on the line here and is very short favourite at around [4.0]. A lay price for me especially when you factor in that she also has a poor record against Daniela Hantuchova in this quarter of the draw. I include the recent Pattaya Open winner in my portfolio at odds of around [51.0]. Azarenka obviously dominates this quarter of the draw with her recent form and upwardly improving profile. She has defied me before but with six games to win and at least three likely matches against players she has bad records against, her price of [4.0] is too short.

Second Quarter: The weakest section in which top seeds Agnieska Radwanska and Jelena Jankovic are plotted to meet in the QF. Both are renowned fickle inconsistencies although the Pole has the accolade of being the only one able to take a set from Azarenka in Melbourne. She also rates the likely SF candidate for me with better hard court form. Her price of [11.0] makes her an attractive back (with the option to perhaps later lay) whilst the dark horse in this quarter is the Israeli Shahar Peer. She is a specialist on hard court and although current form is not great, her price of [250.0] makes her a must for the back to lay strategy section.

Third Quarter: Defending champion Vera Zvonareva heads this quarter but is of no appeal on recent form, especially as she withdrew with a hip injury last week. She also has an appalling recent head-to-head (eight straight defeats) against US Open winner Sam Stosur, who is my idea of a SF candidate from this quarter. The Australian is also in poor 2012 form and perhaps [17.0] is thus a bit short but she has good scores against most other likely candidates in this section with the exception of Flavia Pennetta. The Italian rates a hard court specialist so is also worth a back to lay at her price of [67.0]

Fourth Quarter: The most competitive section headed by former world number one Caroline Wozniacki and in-form French battler Marion Bartoli. The Dane holds sway there and has plusses against most in this section although her winner market odds of [7.0] make her restrictive to my plan personally. I prefer the German Sabine Lisicki, who has a plus head to head against Wozniacki and is thus much better winner market value at around [41.0].

The object of the exercise is to have the SF candidates all covered ensuring a green book and my recommended backs are as follows:

1pt Francesca Schiavone @ [55.0] (Back to Lay) - 1pt Daniela Hantuchova @ [51.0] (Back to Lay)
1pt Agnieska Radwanska @ [11.0] - 1pt Shahar Peer @ [250.0] (Back to Lay)
1pt Samantha Stosur @ [17.0] - 1pt Flavia Pennetta @ [67.0] (Back to Lay)
1pt Sabine Lisicki @ [41.0] (Back to Lay)
I also recommend a 3pt LAY on Victoria Azarenka @ around [4.0] with a view to a hedging BACK during the tournament at preferential odds if and when opportunity affords.