Paris Masters Day Three Tips: Kubot can upset the odds

Events / Ben Caudell / 11 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

"Kubot is 5-5 against big servers and with wins over Andy Roddick, Ivo Karlovic, Igor Andreev, Andreas Beck, Philipp Kohlschreiber and Julien Beneteau, he is definitely a value bet against top 50 players."

Ban Caudell makes a strong case for backing a big outsider in Paris on day three...

Marin Cilic (CRO) v Lukas Kubot (POL)

Today I am going to tip up a big outsider in a match which comprises ample trading opportunities. The player in question is qualifier Lukasz Kubot from Poland.

TKubot is approaching the end of one of his most successful years to date, having hit his highest world ranking of 102 in October of this year. He became the first Pole to reach an ATP final in 26 years when he lost 6-3 7-6 to Novak Djokovic in the Serbian Open. This tournament undoubtedly provided the Pole with a stepping stone and the confidence to compete with the top players in the world, something highlighted in his greatest win when he beat Andy Roddick in Beijing.

Kubot is 5-5 against big servers and with wins over Andy Roddick, Ivo Karlovic, Igor Andreev, Andreas Beck, Philipp Kohlschreiber and Julien Beneteau, he is definitely a value bet against top 50 players. Having already made himself at home in Paris by winning his first three matches (two qualifying wins) he's already got to grips with the playing surface which is considered slow in comparison with most indoor tournaments.

Cilic will be a tough opponent for Kubot to beat having reached the final of two of his last four tournaments, Vienna and Beijing. The Croat enjoys playing on the indoor surfaces and will want to go far at this event but I have a feeling this match won't go to plan for Cilic and definitely believe that there is value in backing the Pole at the start of the match and trading out at a shorter price.

Selection: Back Lukas Kobot @ [6.0] - small bet
Lay Cilic 2-0 @ [1.6]

Best Bet: Lay Cilic 2-0 @ [1.6] (Paris Masters series 1000 2nd Rd)