Events / Ben Caudell / 09 November 2009 / Leave a comment

The consistently inconsistent Paul-Henri Mathieu faces Serbian youngster Viktor Troicki this afternoon in the first round of the Paris Masters. Mathieu will of course be on home soil but will this be enough to see him through, asks Ben Caudell.

"The stats are in Troicki’s favour. Over the last 12 months he has recorded wins in 72% of his indoor hard court matches, compared with Mathieu’s 46%..."

Paul-Henri Mathieu (FRA) v Viktor Troicki (SRB)

23 year-old Troicki from Serbia will go into Monday's match-up with Frenchman Paul-Henri Mathieu as the favourite. Since his retirement due to an ankle injury back in August of this year against Radek Stepanek in Cincinnati, Troicki has strung together some decent performances, especially on the indoor hard courts (7-3).

His most notable performance was reaching the final of the Bangkok Open, defeating number one seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the semis to record only the second ATP tour final of his career.

During this same period of time, Mathieu has struggled to win matches; he is 3-7 including three first round losses from his last six tournaments played. Although he will be playing at home and will have the support of the fans, he finds it hard to adapt to the faster, low-bouncing surfaces which allow him less time to adjust for his large take-back on the forehand.

The stats are in Troicki's favour. Over the last 12 months he has recorded wins in 72% of his indoor hard court matches, compared with Mathieu's 46%, he has better service and return stats and has won 42% of break points compared with just 29% for Mathieu.

Troicki has won four matches in a row when priced up as the favourite; let's hope he continues this run...

Selection: Back Viktor Troicki @ [1.8] to win match

Tags: Paris Masters betting, Paul Henr--Mathieu, tennis bets, tennis events, tennis tips, Troicki