Events / Sean Calvert / 24 March 2009 /

Sean Calvert thinks tournament favourite and last week's winner Rafael Nadal should come up trumps again but one man with a good chance of stopping him is big-serving, in-form Andy Roddick. Here's why.

If Indian Wells taught us one thing, it's that we now have a clear top two in men's tennis.

Whilst it would be foolish to write Roger Federer off completely, his performance in defeat against Andy Murray last week showed that he is now very much behind the Scot, not to mention Rafa Nadal.

And with Novak Djokovic ([12.5]) continuing to display poor form and a lacklustre demeanour, the rankings are largely meaningless at the moment - Nadal and Murray are numbers one and two in the world.

Consequently, the pair head the betting (or at least they would if they weren't in the same half of the draw) for the $4.5 million Sony Ericsson Open, otherwise known as the ATP Miami Masters.

Defending champion here is Nikolay Davydenko, himself a former top four star, but the controversial Russian won't be reclaiming the crown here this year due to injury.

Historically, this tournament has tended to favour confirmed baseliners such as Davydenko, though the records show that Andre Agassi won this event an incredible six times and other winners here include Marcelo Rios, Thomas Muster, Michael Chang, Jim Courier, Mats Wilander, Ivan Lendl and of course Federer.

Interestingly, Miami has only once been won by a player whose highest ATP ranking was outside the top four and that was Tim Mayotte (high of seven) in the event's debut year of 1985.

Going on that evidence and the form of Indian Wells, it's difficult to look further than Nadal ([2.84]) to go one better than his two runner-up finishes here so far.

Assuming the Spaniard has no physical problems, he looks close to unbeatable at the moment, and the draw here is such that he will only have to face a maximum of one from David Nalbandian ([38.0]), Fernando Verdasco ([42.0]) and Murray ([6.2]) on his way to the final, all of whom are capable of beating Nadal on their respective days.

When looking at that draw in detail, an obvious tactic would be to pick a player from Djokovic's quarter, as he is by far the most vulnerable of the 'big four' currently.

The one that appeals most in that sense is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga ([26.0]), but in fact the bottom half of the draw in general should provide the best outright value, as Federer ([4.1]) can't be too happy with his game at the moment after his feeble capitulation to Murray in the final set in Indian Wells.

The value bet that stands out for me as an alternative to Nadal is Andy Roddick at around the [34.0] mark.

As is the norm with Roddick when he gets a new coach, his results perk up, at least temporarily, and he's shown that so far in 2009 with 23 wins from 27 matches.

Roddick's only losses have been against Nadal, Murray and Federer, with one against Radek Stepanek in the final of San Jose that he can be forgiven for. So with his kind draw, he should make at least the quarter final.

In the last eight Roddick will probably face Federer, who Roddick beat here at the same stage last year before going out to an inspired Davydenko and if there's ever a good time to face the Swiss, it is surely now.

I've never been Larry Stefanki's biggest fan as far as coaching is concerned, but he appears to have given his charge some new impetus thus far in their relationship, so it is worth a small wager at [34.0] or better to see how far Roddick can go.

The American has claimed the title in Miami before (d. Coria, in 2004) and he's reached the last eight or better each year since 2006 and I predict another strong showing this time.

As the absolute minimum you know that with Miami being the final hardcourt event prior to the clay court swing, Roddick will be going all out for this one, as his next realistic chance of a title will be at Queens Club in June.

Another relevant stat is that the number one and two seeds haven't faced each other in a Miami final since Agassi and Pete Sampras in 1995 and with Federer looking somewhat disillusioned at the moment I don't fancy the chances of that trend being bucked this time, particularly given Fed's early defeats here in the last two years.

Of the players that might trouble Nadal, Nalbandian has a dreadful record here, having only once made it past the last 32 in eight tries; Verdasco has never made it past the last 32 at all; and Murray has been defeated in his first match on two of his three outings here.

Therefore, I wouldn't be looking much further than Nadal in Miami, as his first challenge of any note looks like it will be a semi final clash with Murray if everything goes to form, although the Scot's section of the draw is tough.

As an alternative, I like Roddick's chances and he could prove to be a decent back-to-lay bet to spring a shock at the Sony Ericsson Open.

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: