Medibank International Betting: Dodge Djokovic and take the Michael

Events / Sean Calvert / 12 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

Sean Calvert tells us why siding with Novak Djokovic is out of the question this week and why backing a big outsider like Michael Llodra is the way forward.

It was back to winning ways again last week with Andy Murray's successful defence of his Qatar Open title in Doha and the ATP Tour now has only two more events prior to the Australian Open.

A competitive field has assembled in Sydney for the Medibank International, with Novak Djokovic being granted a late wild card for some much needed match practice after being dumped out of Brisbane in the first round.

The Serb heads the betting at [3.5] to take the title in his debut appearance in the tournament, but there seems little value in that given Novak's current problems with his new racquet and I imagine he'll be happy just to get some court time under his belt this week.

Djokovic has been drawn to face the winner of Brisbane semi finalist Paul-Henri Mathieu ([40.0]) and Andreas Seppi ([100.0]) and he also has Tommy Robredo ([50.0]) and Mario Ancic to negotiate ([50.0]) in a tricky section.

The second quarter of the draw sees Brisbane quarter finalist and second favourite Jo-Wilfried Tsonga ([6.0]) face the winner of Simone Bolelli ([100.0]) and Rainer Schuettler ([80.0]) before a potential quarter final clash with Tomas Berdych ([17.0]).

Also lurking in that particular quarter with the aim of springing a surprise are Jarko Nieminen [40], Feliciano Lopez ([100.0]), who will be making his first appearance since Spain's Davis Cup victory over Argentina, and wild card Chris Guccione ([80.0]), who lost in the final here last year to Dmitry Tursunov ([40.0]).

The Melbourne lad claimed some notable scalps during that run, including Berdych, Lleyton Hewitt and Brisbane champ Radek Stepanek, but it's hard to see Guccione reprising his role as giant-killer again this year, after a poor end to 2008 in Challenger events.

The highest ranked player in the bottom half of the draw is Gilles Simon ([12.0]), who is making his seasonal debut and second appearance in Sydney, after a stellar 2008 in which he climbed to a career high of six in the world rankings.

The Frenchman finds himself in the toughest section of the draw, along with Tursunov, Stepanek ([22.0]), Richard Gasquet ([14.0])and Igor Andreev ([28.0]) and he will face the winner of Gasquet v Tursunov in his first match.

Stepanek's title in Brisbane must surely have taken something out of him physically, having had some long matches and it's difficult to see him putting too much effort in here, so close to Melbourne.

Russian duo Andreev and Tursunov have shown little of late, having been beaten in their respective opening matches of the year last week and also having both tailed off towards the latter months of 2008.

Andreev is a former finalist here though (in 2006 when he lost to James Blake) and can't be ruled out entirely, although he is notoriously difficult to win with, having claimed just three career titles despite reaching nine finals.

Gasquet as ever remains an enigma and his world ranking of 23 should cause the temperamental but sublimely talented Frenchman some degree of embarrassment.

His record here is hardly inspiring either, as is his failure to better the round of 16 in Melbourne and he is another who is extremely tough to make a profit with.

The final section of the draw will see US Open quarter finalist Mardy Fish ([50.0]) do battle with Janko Tipsarevic ([50)] for the right to play either four-time Sydney champ Lleyton Hewitt ([34.0]) or Julien Benneteau ([100.0]).

The winner of those four will most likely run into David Nalbandian in the last eight, however this is far from nailed-on, as Mr Nalbandian rarely ventures out of Argentina prior to Melbourne, which might go some way to explaining his distinctly average record in the tournament.

Once again, Nalbandian's fitness and desire can only be guessed at and he's plenty short enough to avoid at around [7.0].

The Argentine's questionable early season commitment could open the door for Frenchman Michael Llodra ([80.0]) to go on an unfancied run here at a massive price.

The Parisian serve-volleyer, in contrast to Nalbandian, has a decent record in Australia in January, having claimed the title in Adelaide (now Brisbane) in 2008 and he also reached the final there in 2004, so if you're looking for a real outsider, Llodra could well be your man.

Hewitt will be making his first tournament appearance since the Olympics last summer due to injury and it's surely asking way too much for him to threaten after an absence that has seen his ranking plummet to number 70.

The history of this event has seen such tennis no marks as Hyung-Taik Lee, Patrick McEnroe and Aaron Krickstein claim the title and tellingly the winner of this has gone on to win in Melbourne just twice in 28 renewals, the last of these being Pete Sampras in 1994.

This suggests that the strategy here should be to go for an outsider and in conclusion, the value outright wager for the Medibank International would have to be a small stakes back to lay punt on Michael Llodra at around [80] and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Igor Andreev go well at around [29].