Madrid Masters Series Preview: Follow the formbook ... But which one?

Events / Matthew Walton / 10 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

Having taken a break after the US Open, the tennis 'big guns' are set to return to regular ATP Tour action. Matthew Walton previews the Madrid Masters Series.

The last five weeks have given the rest of the 'lesser' players an opportunity to grab some silverware and recently we've seen players like Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gilles Simon, Andy Roddick and Tomas Berdych secure titles in all manner of places.

Sadly for them, we'll now see a return to arms (or racquets) for the world number one and number two ...

A viewing of the last 50 Masters Series events (going back to Monte Carlo 2003) shows that Federer (13.0) and Nadal (12.0) have won 50% of these titles between them. And, of course, their monopoly of the Grand Slams during this time is similarly well-documented.

After them we find Novak Djokovic and Andy Roddick (both four wins) then Davydenko, Nalbandian, Safin, Coria and Ferrero (all two) and finally Mantilla, Henman, Moya, Agassi, Berdych, Robredo and Murray (all one).

That's 16 different players but an over-riding bias towards the two best players in the world. They haven't even competed in all 50 of these events and still they've won half of them (actually their true winning percentage is nearer 60%). As for this particular event, Federer won here in 2006, Nadal in 2005 and Federer also made the final last year - neither played in Madrid in 2004 and Nadal failed to show in 2003.

Case closed it would seem. See which of these two players has the better draw and offers the better value and your decision is pretty much made for you.

However, as much as this particular formbook would have us rushing to the Betfair market to back either Federer or Nadal, there are sound reasons (both factual and logical) which suggest an interest elsewhere might be prudent.

To begin with, neither player has played much, if at all, lately. Federer hasn't picked up a racquet in anger since Flushing Meadows and Nadal has only played in the Davis Cup. Will they be 'match fit' for this event? When Nadal won here in 2005 he had played in the China Open in between the US Open and then playing in Madrid. When Federer won in 2006 he had been to Tokyo, to play in the Japan Open, during the same period. Last year, when he was only a runner-up, Federer had just played in the Davis Cup.

Following on from that, we have to consider their motivation. In the case of Nadal has won two Slams, Olympic gold and become world number one. Federer's US Open win must have been a massive relief for him and anything else in 2008 would surely be an anti-climax. He may save his energy for a further tilt at the Pete Sampras record in 2009. What else has he to aim for?

Most interesting of all is the evidence of a different set of data. An alternative formbook, if you like. You've seen above the record for the last 50 Masters Series events. Now take a look at the last 50 Masters Series events played solely on hard courts.

Admittedly these go back to 2000, hence we will naturally see less wins for Federer and Nadal (the Spaniard was only 14 back then!), but the results do suggest a much wider gene pool comes into consideration when hard courts alone are used. As we've said time and again in these columns, this surface is the most all-inclusive of the courts used on tour and gives many more players the chance to win.

Hence we've seen 24 different players win in these last 50 hard court, Masters Series events. That's 50% more than the previous study.

Federer has won 10 events, Agassi 6, Safin 5, Nadal and Roddick both 4, Djokovic 3 and then Davydenko and Nalbandian with 2 apiece are the only other players with more than one hard court win.

Whether it's Henman or Haas, Moya or Murray, Ferrero or Ferreira we've a much broader set of players to consider as potential champions.

As such, a focus on the best two players in the world, and market leaders in this event, could very well be misguided. For sure, Nadal wants to impress in his homeland and certainly Federer might play with added freedom now that the pressure is off but the statistics and the 'circumstantial evidence' would suggest that players who have kept themselves busy such as Djokovic, Davydenko and Roddick (all with past winning form in Masters Series events) plus Tsonga, Gonzalez and even Del Potro might be worth a second glance.

Our own Andy Murray, a new recruit to the Masters Series winners club in Cincinnati, has only played Davis Cup and he too, like Nadal and Federer, looks a risky proposition as he might be resting up prior to his debut in the Shanghai Masters Cup in November.

Overall, the way in which you bet depends upon what emphasis you put on the information you have available. Here we've highlighted two sets of data but, with the added use of some lateral thinking, we've (hopefully) shown one to be a better guide than the other.

Nadal and Federer are the men of 2008 but they may not be the Masters of Madrid and you might just find some value should you choose to follow the guidance of one formbook, and not another!