Madrid Master Betting: Federer can edge final against tired Nadal

Events / Ben Caudell / 17 May 2009 / Leave a Comment

Ben Caudell has been impressed by the form of Roger Federer this week and believes the world number two could be about to achieve a rare victory over Rafael Nadal on the red stuff...

Roger Federer meets Rafael Nadal for the 20th time this afternoon in the final of the Madrid Master Series 1000 event.

On his way to defeating fifth seed Juan Martin Del Potro 6-3, 6-4 in yesterday's semi-final, the Swiss master amassed an amazing 82% of first service points won and 52% of second serves, managing to save all four break points on serve and breaking his opponents serve twice to improve to 5-0 in head-to-heads. We had another successful day of tips backing Federer @ [1.44] to win the match and @ [1.83] to win by -3.5 games

Rafael Nadal unbelievably saved three match points against Novak Djokovic in an epic three set match that is believed to be the longest singles match outside of Grand Slams and the Davis Cup. The match took four hours and two minutes to complete culminating in a dramatic final set tie-break in which Nadal eventually won 11-9, the final score was 3-6, 7-6, 7-6.

Today's Selections:

Rafael Nadal (ESP) v Roger Federer (SWI)
This is a match every tennis fan wants to see as the two top players in the world will battle it out for the first time in a final since the Australian Open. Rafael Nadal leads the head-to-head series 13-6 (9-1 on clay) including 11-4 in finals. We have to go back to Shanghai in November 2007 for the last time Roger Federer defeated the Spaniard.

The meeting between two of the games all time greats should be another classic. However I am unsure as to how Rafael Nadal will be able to recover from his marathon match against Novak Djokovic late last night. Roger Federer will sense the opportunity that lies before him on the Spaniard favourite clay court surface. The Swiss has defeated the Spaniard in a clay court final before, back in Hamburg two years ago, so there is hope and optimism that this can be repeated once again.

The courts at the Madrid Masters are a lot faster than your average clay court and being at altitude can only help Federer even more. The Swiss has enjoyed the pace of the court unlike a lot of other players who have been dissatisfied with the general play of the surface. If Federer serves at the same level he has done throughout the tournament this match could swing in his favour. Expect Nadal to put his all into the final but I just have a sneak suspicion that Federer will edge this one.