Cincinatti Masters Tips Day Six: All American semi-final

Events / Ben Caudell / 21 August 2010 / Leave a Comment

Ben believes this match will be won on serve

Roddick leads the head-to-head series but Fish won their most recent encounter."

Two time Cincinnati champion Andy Roddick meets Mardy Fish - yesterday's tip to defeat Andy Murray - in a repeat of the 2003 final. Where is Ben Caudell putting his money?

Mardy Fish (USA) v Andy Roddick (USA)

Tonight's all American battle between the two buddies will be the 13th match they have played against each other and the ninth match on hard courts. Andy Roddick leads the overall head-to-head series 9-3 (7-2 on hard) but Mardy Fish won their most recent encounter a month ago.

Roddick, who by his own standards has had a poor summer season plagued by illness, reached the Cincinnati semi-final for the fifth time in his career yesterday after defeating a lacklustre Novak Djokovic in straight sets. The big-serving dynamo finally looks to be back to the kind of form that saw him win the Miami Masters title and reach the Indian Wells Masters final back in Marc. He will now return to the Top 10 in the ATP Tour Rankings next week.

Both Fish and Roddick have won two ATP World Tour titles this season, Mardy Fish is 33-12 for the season and 20-8 on hard, compared with Roddick 39-9 and 33-6 respectively. Tonight's match represents the first World Tour Masters 1000 semi-final with two Americans since Cincinnati 2005.

I believe this match will be determined by serve; in eight matches combined this week, Fish and Roddick have won 100 of 103 service games. Fish has won 48 of 49 service games, saving 10 of 11 break points, while Roddick has held serve in 52 of 54 games, saving five of seven break points.

With these service stats in mind we can make the assumption that there will definitely be a tie-break at some point. Five of nine sets have been tie breaks sets in Fish's matches and four of nine in Roddick's, therefore the wise bet would be to also back over 23.5 games. This match can be decided by a toss of a coin therefore the price on Fish to win at [2.50] represents good value.

Recommended bets:
Back Tie Break Played? Yes @ [1.6] (Best Bet)
Back Over 23.5 Games @ [1.8]
Back Mardy Fish @ 2.5 to win match