Cincinatti Masters Tips Day Four: Can Andy put wobble behind him?

Events / Ben Caudell / 19 August 2010 / Leave a Comment

Andy must improve his first serves against Ernests Gulbis

"Gulbis will rise to the occasion tonight; there's definitely value in backing the Latvian at an inflated [4.8] and trading out at a better price."

Andy Murray's opponent had to battle through an epic encounter to reach the third round but the Scot hardly looks invulnerable after his chequered second round performance. So where if Ben Caudell putting his money?

Ernests Gulbis (LAT) v Andy Murray (GBR)

Andy Murray struggled to fend off big hitting Jeremy Chardy in his opening match, suffering a second set wobble before eventually coming out on top with a 6-3 6-7 6-2 win.

Murray, who found it hard to adapt to the faster, more demanding Cincinnati conditions, showed little of the form that helped him capture a second consecutive Rogers Cup title in Toronto last week. The young Scot failed to convert a match point on his serve in the 10th game before losing the tie-break, in total there were six breaks of serve in the second set and Murray will need to improve his first serve percentage if he is going to trouble Ernests Gulbis in tonight's third round encounter.

The 21-year-old Latvian battled through to win an epic match against French Open semi-finalist Jurgen Melzer in 2 hours and 24 mins 6-7 6-3 7-6 without being broken. Gulbis was immense on serve recording 80% of first serve points won and 60% on second serve and will prove to be a stern test for Murray.

The stats are defiantly in favour of the number four for seed in this match-up; Murray has a 4-0 head-to-head series lead over his younger opponent, dropping just one set in all four matches. Murray is 9-1 on the hard-courts and the same in Cincinnati, compared with 6-4 and 6-3 respectively for Gulbis.

Murray often needs time to find his feet and form at the start of each tournament, similar to last week where the he looked out of sorts in the opening rounds before demolishing David Nalbandian, Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer all in straight sets to reclaim the Rogers cup. But Gulbis might not give him time to adjust so there is a potential upset on the cards.

Gulbis, being the fresher of the two, will rise to the occasion tonight; there's definitely value in backing the Latvian at an inflated 4.8 in the Match odds and trading out at a better price. I can see this match going to three sets and therefore will be laying Murray 2-0 and backing Gulbis in the Handicap market as my best bet.

Selection: Lay Murray 2-0 @ [1.78]
Back Gulbis +4.5 Games @ [1.7]
Back Ernests Gulbis @ [4.7] to win match and to trade out at a shorter price