China Open Betting: Nadal isn't in Beijing for the spring rolls

Events / Sean Calvert / 05 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

Rafael Nadal won the China Open back in 2005 in his only shot at the tournament and the Olympic Games in 2008, also staged in Beijing.

"Number one seed this week is Rafa Nadal, who loves Beijing, having been successful in this tournament in his only start in 2005. The Spaniard also won the Olympic tournament here last year, so overall Nadal has played two and won two in the city."

Sean Calvert talks us through the field at the China Open, which includes such illustrious names as Nadal, Dkokovic and Roddick. The Spaniard is the man to beat here, in a country where he has fond memories of past successes.

Had erstwhile midfield terrier turned football pundit Chris Kamara been commentating on last week's Robin Soderling v Nikolay Davydenko semi final clash in Kuala Lumpur, he would doubtless have uttered the well-worn phrase: 'Unbelievable Jeff' at the outcome.

Incredibly, Soderling - my tip - when cruising at a set and a break up and [1.04] in the market decided to revive the 'old' version of himself and implode on the spot to hand a hitherto desperately poor Davydenko the win and eventually the Malaysia Open title.

Still, these things happen in sport and particularly in tennis and we press on to the next leg of the Asian swing and this week's big money event the China Open.

This one is held in Beijing where heat and humidity always comes into play and tends to make the courts play a little slower than the usual outdoor hard surfaces.

The winner will also need to be fit with lots of stamina, as the conditions will test the player's endurance to the limit.

Number one seed this week is Rafa Nadal, who loves Beijing, having been successful in this tournament in his only start in 2005. The Spaniard also won the Olympic tournament here last year, so overall Nadal has played two and won two in the city.

The world number two has been given a nice looking draw, where his first round opponent is an on-the slide-Marcos Baghdatis and his section includes James Blake, David Ferrer and Fernando Gonzalez - all of whom Nadal should have no worries about defeating.

The adjacent section for my money is wide open, with Davydenko being the highest seed ahead of Marin Cilic. I quite like the look of Cilic in this section over a tired Davydenko, of whom the Croatian holds a 2-0 head-to-head advantage in any case. Cilic has prevailed in stifling conditions before, when he won the title in Chennai this year, so he won't be hindered at this venue and is not a bad bet at around [17.0] on his New York form.

The bottom half of the draw is crowded with potential title winners, including reigning champion Andy Roddick ([6.6]) and number two seed Novak Djokovic ([5.6]) in addition to Soderling ([20]) and Fernando Verdasco ([23].

There are also some unseeded players with potential including Bangkok runner-up Viktor Troicki ([80]) and the likes of Tommy Robredo ([60]), Jeremy Chardy ([110]), Paul-Henri Mathieu ([80]) and Juan Carlos Ferrero ([50]).

So, all in all the bottom section of the draw looks the tougher of the two, but I have a feeling that Djokovic will be the one to make his way to the final. The world number four gave Serbia's Davis Cup tie a miss in order to be ready for the Asian swing and he isn't in Beijing purely to make up the numbers.

Although Djokovic is generally regarded as having endured a poor campaign in 2009, he has in fact only been beaten by the likes of Roger Federer and Nadal in the big events, with the odd exception. He holds a very respectable 33-9 hard court record in 2009 and at around [5.6] the Serbian represents the best value in the bottom half of the draw.

Roddick enjoyed a mini-renaissance in the summer after linking up with Larry Stefanki, but has been disappointing generally since that loss to Federer in the Wimbledon final.
Depending on your viewpoint, you could argue that he may have needed some time to get over that defeat and is ready to bounce back any time soon, or you may buy into the theory that Roddick always enjoys a short lived 'new coach bounce' when he links up with a new mentor.

I'm siding with the latter viewpoint at the moment and the [6.6] currently on offer about the American, who hasn't played since a disappointing loss to John Isner in New York, doesn't tempt me to back him this week.

So, to sum up I think that Nadal will be going all out to avenge that hammering at the hands of Juan Martin Del Potro in New York and he has the draw to do it. I can see him facing Djokovic in the final.

Recommendations:

Back: Nadal at around [2.94]
Long shot: Cilic at around [17.0]