BNP Paribas Open Men's Draw: The "new" Verdasco can go far in the heat

Events / Sean Calvert / 11 March 2009 / Leave a Comment

With question marks hanging over all of the top four ranked players in the world, Sean Calvert looks at a lower-ranked and bigger-priced player to go far this week. Australian Open semi-finalist Fernando Verdasco is that man.

The first ATP Masters Series event of 2009 is upon us and presuming last year's sponsors Pacific Life have gone to the wall, it's now called the BNP Paribas Open.

As usual the whopping prize fund, which this year is in the region of $4.5 million, has attracted the top stars from all over the world, regardless of their physical condition.

Step forward then Andy Murray (ankle and virus), Rafa Nadal (knee), Roger Federer (emotionally scarred from Australia) and Novak Djokovic (I think he's ok).

There are severe doubts over Murray's ability to last the distance here after he retired mid-tournament in Dubai with a virus, which no doubt was caused by his ridiculous training regime.

The Scot would certainly not be on offer at his current price of [5.8] if he was in decent shape and it gets as punishingly hot in Indian Wells as it does in Melbourne at times, so I won't be investing in him on this occasion.

Nadal heads the market at around [3.8], but it is surely guesswork as to whether his knee has recovered after his one-legged effort against Murray in Rotterdam.

His performances in the Davis Cup would suggest that he is injury free, but I don't fancy risking that either, given that this event is neither a Slam nor is it a Davis Cup tie.

Of all the tournaments in the US hard court swing, this is probably the one that the Spaniard performs best at, having won here in 2007 without dropping a set and also reaching the semis last year, so there's no doubting he will be a strong contender.

If this was a five set event, then Nadal would be eminently backable at [3.8], but as it's not, I'll look elsewhere for value.

Physically fine, but mentally scarred Federer doesn't exactly fill me with confidence either at around [4.0].

The Swiss has not been seen on court since his tearful exit in Melbourne and tame exits here in the last two years to Guillermo Canas and Mardy Fish suggest that winning Indian Wells isn't too high on his list of priorities for the season.

He should be nicely rested though and he'll probably reach the semis at least, but [4.0] is too skinny for me, given all the negatives.

The last of the 'big four' is reigning champion Djokovic, who managed to come back to some sort of form when winning in Dubai a couple of weeks ago.

That was a bit of a hollow victory for my money though, as his only notable scalps that week were David Ferrer and Marin Cilic, the latter of whom played a dreadful match.

The standard of Djokovic's play wasn't great and his straight sets thrashings at the hands of Ferrer and Nadal in the Davis Cup last week adds to the impression that the Serb is well short of his best.

The only saving grace for him is his fine record here of 11 wins v 2 losses, but he is simply not playing well enough to win here this time and I'd want bigger than the likely [7.5] to invest in him.

So, how do we find this year's Mardy Fish or James Blake - runners up at big prices in 2008 and 2006 respectively?

Well, the first outsider that springs to mind is the 'new' Fernando Verdasco, who is available at [40].

The Spaniard played some unbelievable tennis in Melbourne, where he came closer than Federer to ending Nadal's run and of course he defeated Murray, so the form is there.

The reason that he is such a big price of course is the feeling that his run in Australia may have been a flash in the pan, but Verdasco's overall results towards the end of 2008 suggested that he was building towards a new level in his career.

Often regarded as a bit of a choker, he seems to have found new confidence lately and Melbourne can only have increased that confidence.

At [40] it is definitely worth chancing that it has, especially considering that the only likely opposition to a quarter-final spot in his draw are the likes of Richard Gasquet ([60.0]), Robin Soderling ([120.0]), Nikolay Davydenko ([80.0]), Feliciano Lopez ([90.0]) and Janko Tipsarevic ([120.0]).

The first rounder might be tough against Tipsarevic, considering that the Serb holds a 2-0 head-to-head record over Verdasco, but if he gets through that - and he should - I fancy him to go far here.

Others to consider for the shortlist in my view are Jo-Wilfried Tsonga ([16.0]), Mardy Fish ([200.0]) and maybe even Radek Stepanek ([85.0]), all of whom are near their best form right now and Gael Monfils ([85.0]), who is due to complete a tournament without retiring sometime soon.