BNP Paribas Open Betting: Nadal and Ivanovic look the eventual winners

Events / Barry Millns / 19 March 2009 / Leave a Comment

As we enter the quarter-final stage of both the men and women's draw, Barry Millns looks at who has been hot, who has not, and who you should be backing to win the lot.

As the first significant combined event since the Australian Open, the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells is a good indicator of how well the world's top players (aside from the absent Williams sisters) are shaping up for 2009. It has come as no great surprise that while seven of the world's Top 10 men made it to the quarter-finals, only four of the world's Top 10 women reached the same stage.

Chief among the early casualties were Jelena Jankovic, Elena Dementieva and Svetlana Kuznetsova who all had byes into the second round but failed to advance beyond it. While the two Russians were upset by Czech qualifier Petra Cetkovska and Polish wildcard Ursula Radwanska respectively, the biggest buzz was created by 17-year-old Russian Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

Ranked 42nd in the world Pavlyuchenkova (now trading at [22] for the title) hit 31 winners past Jankovic in a 6-4, 6-4 victory, her first over a Top 10 player, and continued to win in straight sets en route to the last eight where she is due to face 7th seed Agnieska Radwanska ([8.4]).

Having ended last year as the world No.1, Jankovic's loss continued her early season slump and she put it down to a changed training routine during the off-season which she said had reduced her mobility. "My best weapon was my legs," Jankovic said. "I always moved well and I had the anticipation and I was always on the ball. Now I just cannot do that. I'm one step too slow or one step too much into the shot, and then all the strokes break down and I don't have the timing and my accuracy is not there."

No such trouble though for Serbia's other leading lady, the fifth seed and defending champion Ana Ivanovic ([4.3]) now benefiting from the advice of new coach Craig Kardon. She won her first couple of matches in straights sets before beating Italy's Flavia Pennetta in three to reach a quarterfinal against Austria's Sybille Bammer ([8.0]), who knocked out former champion Daniela Hantuchova.

As for top seed Dinara Safina, this tournament offered the Russian another opportunity to take over the No.1 ranking. But having advanced to the quarterfinals she was upstaged by Belarusian Victoria Azarenka ([4.0]) who must now try for the first time in four attempts to beat the form player of the tournament so far Vera Zvonareva [2.64].

She is a player who clearly enjoys the hot, dry conditions at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden, having previously reached three quarterfinals in four visits. Zvonareva underlined her fine early season form by beating 9th seed Caroline Wozniacki to reach her first semi-final at the tournament, and without dropping a set to boot. My money, though, is still on Ivanovic to defend her title.

The odds on Novak Djokovic doing likewise in the men's event are, not surprisingly, far greater at [10.0]. Although the world No.3 did not drop a set in his first three matches, his form was laboured and erratic to say the least. All of this caused, one suspects, by his continued struggle to adapt to using his new Head rackets after a very lucrative, but risky, switch from Wilson.

A tricky re-match with Andy Roddick ([32.0]), who beat him in the Australian Open, is next on the Serb's schedule and regardless of who wins that one I would still back world No.1 Rafael Nadal ([2.7]) to reach the final from the top half of the draw. Especially after the way he beat David Nalbandian for the first time in a thrilling fourth round encounter, saving five match points in the process, for a clash with the leading Argentine Juan Martin Del Potro ([46.0]).

Ivan Ljubicic [220] has certainly surprised many by reaching his first Masters quarterfinal for almost two years, the Croat also saving a handful of match points in beating Igor Andreev. But after that three hour marathon Ljubicic may struggle to last the course on his 30th birthday against Andy Murray ([4.4]), who played down his chances following his recovery from a virus, but who has impressed in every match so far and not dropped a set.

If Murray wins then standing between him and the final will be either Roger Federer ([4.5]) or the much improved Fernando Verdasco ([20.0]). Two men playing in their first event since the Australian Open where they both shone, but ultimately lost out to Nadal in successive five-setters.

Verdasco has played some scintillating tennis so far, especially in dismissing Richard Gasquet, while Federer has cleared some difficult obstacles en route to his fifth Indian Wells quarterfinal. But bearing in mind how slow the courts are and how well Nadal is playing, I expect the 2007 champion to regain the trophy on Sunday.